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Population Change and the Requirements for Physicians: The Case of Ontario


  • Frank T. Denton
  • Amiram Gafni
  • Byron G. Spencer


The effects of population change on requirements for physicians in Ontario are studied. Principal findings are the following: (a) contrary to popular belief, the overall increase in requirements will be significantly lower in 2000-20 than in the preceding two decades; (b) population aging alone will raise the overall rate of growth of requirements but that will be more than offset by slower population growth; and (c) the main effect of aging will be on the distribution of requirements among categories of physicians. These findings suggest that the emphasis on population aging in policy discussions of future overall physician requirements is unwaranted.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank T. Denton & Amiram Gafni & Byron G. Spencer, 2001. "Population Change and the Requirements for Physicians: The Case of Ontario," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 27(4), pages 469-485, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:27:y:2001:i:4:p:469-485

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Duncan Thomas, 1990. "Intra-Household Resource Allocation: An Inferential Approach," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 25(4), pages 635-664.
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    Cited by:

    1. Denton, Frank T. & Gafni, Amiram & Spencer, Byron G., 2002. "Exploring the effects of population change on the costs of physician services," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 781-803, September.
    2. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2009. "Chronic Health Conditions: Changing Prevalence in an Aging Population and Some Implications for the Delivery of Health Care Services," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 435, McMaster University.
    3. Frank T. Denton & Amiram Gafni & Byron G. Spencer, 2005. "Users and Suppliers of Physician Services: A Tale of Two Populations," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 399, McMaster University.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts


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