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Estimación de la tasa de cambio real de equilibrio: aplicación a Colombia

  • Jaime Silva González


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    The aim of this study is to gather empirical evidence to discern theimpact of real exchange rate on the Colombian economy during 1990to 2002. The problem when you try to find this impact is the estimationof the real exchange rate of equilibrium, the one that is consistentwhit the simultaneous acquisition of external and internal balance. Inthis regard to achieve this goal are we used the approach developedby Edwards (1988). This model indentifies a set of key exogenousvariables that determinate those equilibriums. From this we developa reduced model for Colombia that relates the real exchange rate withsome of the variables proposed in the model. Finally we find that thereal exchange rate appreciates with positive shocks to real interestrates and depreciates with the high debt service, volatile term of tradeand with the variable of gross capital formation.El objetivo de este trabajo es reunir evidencia empírica para discernirel impacto de la tasa de cambio real sobre la economía colombianadurante el período 1990-2002. El problema a la hora de encontrareste impacto consiste en la estimación de la tasa de cambio real deequilibrio, aquella que es consistente con la obtención simultánea delos equilibrios externo e interno. En este sentido, para lograr estecometido se recurre al enfoque desarrollado por Edwards (1988). Estemodelo identifica un conjunto de variables exógenas fundamentalesque determinan los mencionados equilibrios. A partir de aquí seconstruye un modelo de forma reducida para Colombia que relacionala tasa de cambio real con algunas de las variables propuestas en elmodelo. Finalmente, se explica que la tasa de cambio real se apreciacon shocks positivos de la tasa de interés real y se deprecia con el altoservicio de la deuda, términos de intercambio volátiles, y la variablede formación bruta de capital.

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    Article provided by UNIVERSIDAD DEL NORTE in its journal REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL CARIBE.

    Volume (Year): (2009)
    Issue (Month): (November)

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    Handle: RePEc:col:000382:007121
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    1. Johan Mathisen, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Malawi," IMF Working Papers 03/104, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Tarhan Feyzioglu, 1997. "Estimating the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate; An Application to Finland," IMF Working Papers 97/109, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Joannes Mongardini, 1998. "Estimating Egypt’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 98/5, International Monetary Fund.
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