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Posconflicto colombiano y sus efectos económicos

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  • María Ruiz Diaz, John Galeano Raquejo, Edwin Gil Mateus

Abstract

Las negociaciones de paz del gobierno con las denominadas Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) podrían tener efectos sobre la economía colombiana. Por ello se esbozan tres escenarios –pesimista, neutral y optimista– en los que se distingan efectos a nivel financiero y de comercio internacional en los cinco anos posteriores a la finalización del proceso de negociación. Partiendo del estudio de casos en cinco países que enfrentaron la terminación de un conflicto interno, por vía militar o diplomática, se analizaron variables sobre las cuales se podría prever un efecto, teniendo en cuenta el posconflicto y el desenlace de las negociaciones de paz entre la guerrilla y el Gobierno. Se concluye que en los cinco anos posteriores a la firma del acuerdo, la balanza de bienes y servicios crecería entre el 3% y 6%; el comercio lo haría entre 10% y 15%; el Riesgo País se incrementaría alrededor de 4 puntos; la Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED) aumentaría entre 40% y 50%; el crecimiento del PIB anual estaría 1 ó 2 puntos porcentuales más alto que el actual y el gasto militar disminuiría al 10% como porcentaje del PIB.

Suggested Citation

  • María Ruiz Diaz, John Galeano Raquejo, Edwin Gil Mateus, 2016. "Posconflicto colombiano y sus efectos económicos," Revista CIFE, Universidad Santo Tomás, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000195:015202
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    File URL: http://revistas.usantotomas.edu.co/index.php/cife/article/view/3210
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Perspectivas económicas; Negociaciones;

    JEL classification:

    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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