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"Guns or Butter?" Revisited: Robustness and Nonlinearity Issues in the Defense-Grotwth Nexus

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Abstract

The relationship between military expenditure and growth is studied taking into account potential nonlinearities and robustness issues in the specification of the econometric models used. Using cross-country growth regressions and the widely used Feder-Ram model, the partial correlation between defense and economic growth appears robust and significantly negative only for countries with a relatively low military expenditure ratio. While the externality effect appears positive in this subgroup of countries, the overall effect turns negative due to the size effect of the military sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Crespo Guaresma & Gerhard Reitschuler, 2003. ""Guns or Butter?" Revisited: Robustness and Nonlinearity Issues in the Defense-Grotwth Nexus," Vienna Economics Papers vie0310, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:vie:viennp:vie0310
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    1. Njamen Kengdo Arsène Aurelien & Nchofoung Tii N. & Kos A Mougnol Alice, 2023. "Determinants of Military Spending in Africa: Do Institutions Matter?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 29(4), pages 401-440, December.
    2. Hsien-Hung Kung & Jennifer C. H. Min, 2013. "Military Spending and Economic Growth Nexus in Sixteen Latin and South American Countries: A Bootstrap Panel Causality Test," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 171-185, December.
    3. Chien-Chiang Lee & Sheng-Tung Chen, 2007. "Non-Linearity In The Defence Expenditure - Economic Growth Relationship In Taiwan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 537-555.
    4. Julien Malizard, 2014. "Dépenses militaires et croissance économique dans un contexte non linéaire. Le cas français," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 65(3), pages 601-618.
    5. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah, 2019. "Military expenditure and economic growth: evidence from a heterogeneous panel of African countries," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 3586-3606, January.
    6. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Skaperdas, Stergios (ed.), 2012. "The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Peace and Conflict," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195392777.
    7. Dada James Temitope & Sharimakin Akinwumi & Al-Faryan Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh & Tabash Mosab I. & Adeiza Adams, 2024. "Asymmetric and Threshold Effect of Military Expenditure on Economic Growth: Insight from an Emerging Market," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 30(4), pages 477-503.
    8. Aurelien, Njamen Kengdo Arsene & Nchofoung, Tii Njivukuh & Marcel, Takoulac Kamta & Jean-Claude, Kouladoum, 2019. "Non-linear effect of military spending on economic growth in Africa: A comparative study between stable and unstable countries," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 195-215.
    9. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & John P. Dunne & Rangan Gupta & Rene� van Eyden, 2014. "Military expenditure, economic growth and structural instability: a case study of South Africa," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 619-633, December.
    10. Obreja Brasoveanu, Laura, 2010. "The Impact of Defense Expenditure on Economic Growth," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 148-167, December.
    11. John Galeano Raquejo, Edwin Gil Mateus María Ruiz Diaz, 2016. "Posconflicto colombiano y sus efectos económicos," Revista CIFE, Universidad Santo Tomás.
    12. Shreesh Chary, 2023. "The nexus between arms imports, military expenditures and economic growth of the top arms importers in the world: a pooled mean group approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(4), pages 808-822, August.
    13. Andrew Phiri, 2019. "Does Military Spending Nonlinearly Affect Economic Growth in South Africa?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 474-487, June.
    14. Tiwari, Aviral & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "Does Defence Spending Stimulate Economic Growth in India?," MPRA Paper 30880, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Apr 2011.
    15. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Siew Ling Yew, 2018. "The effect of military expenditure on growth: an empirical synthesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1357-1387, November.
    16. Waqar Qureshi & Noor Pio Khan, 2017. "Revisiting the Relationship between Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Pakistan," Global Social Sciences Review, Humanity Only, vol. 2(1), pages 18-46, June.
    17. Isiaka Akande Raifu & Alarudeen Aminu, 2023. "The effect of military spending on economic growth in MENA: evidence from method of moments quantile regression," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-21, December.
    18. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Nadir Öcal & Jülide Yildirim, 2023. "Distinct Asymmetric Effects of Military Spending on Economic Growth for Different Income Groups of Countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 477-494, May.
    19. Chad R. Wilkerson & Megan D. Williams, 2008. "How is the rise in national defense spending affecting the Tenth District economy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 93(Q II), pages 49-79.
    20. Nusrate Aziz & M. Niaz Asadullah, 2017. "Military spending, armed conflict and economic growth in developing countries in the post-Cold War era," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(1), pages 47-68, January.
    21. Thomas Bernauer & Vally Koubi & Fabio Ernst, 2009. "National and Regional Economic Consequences of Swiss Defense Spending," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(4), pages 467-484, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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