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Impuestos y deuda pública: una relación paradójica

Listed author(s):
  • Daniel Velázquez Orihuela

    ()

  • Diana Xóchitl González Gómez

    ()

Registered author(s):

    En este trabajo se muestra que un incremento en los impuestos orientado a disminuir la deuda puede incrementarla en el largo plazo. Esto ocurre siempre que un aumento en los impuestos reduzca la expectativa de ahorro en un mayor monto de lo que disminuyó la deuda pública inicialmente. La causa por la cual la deuda crece es porque el incremento en el impuesto reduce la inversión y esto tiene dos efectos: (i) disminuye el nivel de producción, lo que provoca una disminución en la base gravable, es decir, en el ingreso del gobierno; (ii) aumenta la tasa de interés y con ello el costo de la deuda pasada. Ante este panorama el gobierno se ve forzado a incrementar la deuda pública para mantener el gasto constante. En este trabajo se ofrece evidencia estadística para cinco países europeos en crisis que muestra que la deuda pública está explicada por la inversión, tal como resulta en el modelo teórico; lo cual sugiere que las políticas de austeridad implementadas en estos países para reducir la deuda, pueden ser contraproducentes. ****** This paper shows that an increase in debt aimed at reducing taxes may increase it in the long run. This occurs whenever a tax increase reduces the expectation of savings in an amount greater than public debt decreased initially. The reason why the debt grows is because the tax increase reduces investment and this has two effects: (i) decreases the production level, which causes a decrease in the tax base, i.e., meaning the government income; (ii) the interest rate increases and thus the cost of past debt. Against this background, the government is forced to increase public debt to maintain constant spending. In this paper, statistical evidence is offered for five European countries in crisis that shows that public debt is explained by the investment, as it results in the theoretical model; this suggests that the austerity policies implemented in these countries in order to reduce debt, may be counterproductive.

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    File URL: http://revistas.unimilitar.edu.co/index.php/rfce/article/view/2223/2034
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    Article provided by UNIVERSIDAD MILITAR NUEVA GRANADA in its journal REVISTA FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS.

    Volume (Year): 24 (2016)
    Issue (Month): 2 (October)
    Pages: 7-28

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    Handle: RePEc:col:000180:015142
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