IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cog/socinc/v11y2023i1p269-281.html

Growing Pains: Can Family Policies Revert the Decline of Fertility in Spain?

Author

Listed:
  • Begoña Elizalde-San Miguel

    (Department of Sociology and Social Work, Public University of Navarre, Spain)

  • Vicente Díaz Gandasegui

    (Department of Social Analysis, University Carlos III of Madrid, Spain)

  • María T. Sanz

    (Department of Didactics of Mathematics, University of Valencia, Spain)

Abstract

This article aims to analyze the capability of family policies to reverse the sharp decline in fertility that has been observed in Spain in recent decades. The analysis was carried out by applying two mathematical techniques: the genetic algorithm and the strategic scenarios. Firstly, a mathematical model was designed and validated adjusting the combined performance of fertility and family policies during the 2008–2019 period. Subsequently, this model was applied to the future (2020–2060) to extrapolate the evolution of fertility considering different models of family policies. The results demonstrate that a model of family policies that is coherent with other socially desirable objectives, such as gender and social equality, will be insufficient to reverse the current downward trend in fertility. Therefore, these outcomes point to the need to articulate and harmonize diverse public policies considering the principles of equality and well‐being to modify the recent decline in fertility. An increase in fertility must therefore be identified as a socially desirable goal and public policies must be adapted to this objective, in the understanding that fertility not only requires family policies but also their coherence with the employment and educational policies and work–life balance mechanisms offered by public institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Begoña Elizalde-San Miguel & Vicente Díaz Gandasegui & María T. Sanz, 2023. "Growing Pains: Can Family Policies Revert the Decline of Fertility in Spain?," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 11(1), pages 269-281.
    • Handle: RePEc:cog:socinc:v11:y:2023:i:1:p:269-281
    DOI: 10.17645/si.v11i1.6141
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cogitatiopress.com/socialinclusion/article/view/6141
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17645/si.v11i1.6141?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Begoña Elizalde-San Miguel & Vicente Díaz Gandasegui & Maria T. Sanz García, 2019. "Family Policy Index: A Tool for Policy Makers to Increase the Effectiveness of Family Policies," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 387-409, February.
    2. Maria T. Sanz & Vicente Díaz Gandasegui & Begoña Elizalde-San Miguel, 2019. "Sense and sensibility: using a model to examine the relationship between public pre-school places and fertility," The Journal of Mathematical Sociology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 213-230, October.
    3. Gerda Neyer & Trude Lappegård & Daniele Vignoli, 2013. "Gender Equality and Fertility: Which Equality Matters?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 245-272, August.
    4. Alyce Raybould & Rebecca Sear, 2021. "Children of the (gender) revolution: A theoretical and empirical synthesis of how gendered division of labour influences fertility," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(2), pages 169-190, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jacques‐Antoine Gauthier & Vida Česnuitytė, 2023. "Family in Challenging Circumstances: Ways of Coping," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 11(1), pages 210-213.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Begoña Elizalde-San Miguel & Vicente Díaz Gandasegui & María T. Sanz, 2023. "Growing Pains: Can Family Policies Revert the Decline of Fertility in Spain?," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 11(1), pages 269-281.
    2. Thaís García-Pereiro & Letizia Mencarini & Raffaella Patimo & Maria Letizia Tanturri, 2025. "Women's Domestic Burden and Gendered Fertility Intentions in Italy: The Role of Parity and Child's Sex," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 41(1), pages 1-41, December.
    3. Victor Leocádio & Ana Paula Verona & Simone Wajnman, 2025. "A review of research of the relationship between gender equity and fertility in low-fertility settings," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 1-26, March.
    4. Vicente Díaz Gandasegui & Begoña Elizalde-San Miguel & Maria T. Sanz, 2021. "Back to the Future: a Sensitivity Analysis to Predict Future Fertility Rates Considering the Influence of Family Policies—The Cases of Spain and Norway," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 943-968, April.
    5. Ewa Jarosz & Anna Matysiak & Beata Osiewalska, 2023. "Maternal Free Time: A Missing Element in Fertility Studies," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 49(4), pages 801-828, December.
    6. Barbara S. Okun & Liat Raz‐Yurovich, 2019. "Housework, Gender Role Attitudes, and Couples' Fertility Intentions: Reconsidering Men's Roles in Gender Theories of Family Change," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(1), pages 169-196, March.
    7. Hubert Pinto, 2023. "Relationship between Gender Roles and Marital Stability among Couples in Selected Counties of Kenya," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(10), pages 1629-1647, October.
    8. Emiliana Mangone & Giuseppe Masullo & Francesca Cubeddu & Miriam Matteo, 2025. "The Propensity for Parenthood in Italy Between Cultural Orientations, Individual Choices, and Welfare Policies," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-21, February.
    9. Yan Yan & Wenqian Bai & Yuqing Geng & Juan Gao, 2025. "Can decent work promote fertility intention? The mediating role of work-family conflict," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, December.
    10. Branislav Šprocha, 2022. "Growing Childlessness and One‐Child Families in Slovakia in the Shadow of Fragile Pronatalism," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 10(3), pages 100-111.
    11. Kamila Ishchanova, 2022. "Home Alone: Exploring Childcare Options to Remove Barriers to Second Childbearing in Belarus," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 10(3), pages 112-123.
    12. Jing Zhao & Zhijie Zou & Jianfei Chen & Yujia Chen & Wanfa Lin & Xianbo Pei & Enjing Li & Yajing Dong & Xiaoli Chen, 2024. "Offline social capital, online social capital, and fertility intentions: evidence from China," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Hubert Pinto, 2023. "Relationship between Gender Roles and Marital Stability among Couples in Selected Counties of Kenya," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(8), pages 1417-1434, August.
    14. Rajesh Gupta & Atulan Guha, 2024. "Construction of Sub-country Level Environment Policy Stringency Index: A Study on Indian States," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 172(2), pages 449-479, March.
    15. Kamila Ishchanova, 2022. "Home Alone: Exploring Childcare Options to Remove Barriers to Second Childbearing in Belarus," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 10(3), pages 112-123.
    16. Hippolyte d’ALBIS & Paula E. GOBBI & Angela GREULICH, 2017. "Having a Second Child and Access to Childcare : Evidence from European Countries," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(2), pages 177-210, June.
    17. Kamila Ishchanova, 2026. "Housework, Childcare, and Fertility Intentions: The Role of Fathers’ Involvement in Belarus," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 14.
    18. Janetta Nestorová Dická & Filip Lipták, 2024. "Regional fertility predictors based on socioeconomic determinants in Slovakia," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 1-43, September.
    19. Øystein Kravdal, 2025. "Should we be concerned about low fertility? A discussion of six possible arguments," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 53(14), pages 373-418.
    20. Mengyao Xian & Zeyun Liu, 2026. "The Effect of Women’s Education on Fertility in China: Evidence from Extensive and Intensive Margins," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 45(2), pages 1-29, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cog:socinc:v11:y:2023:i:1:p:269-281. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: António Vieira or IT Department (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cogitatiopress.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.