Denomination of the Debt of the Chilean Government: A Risk Management Perspective
This paper proposes a framework to assess the convenience of the current public debt denomination of the Chilean Government, through its implications on fiscal budget risk management. A “Value at Risk” methodology is proposed to compare alternative denominations regarding currency and interest rate. This methodology computes the implicit volatility of the budget’s result considering both the variance of individual accounts, as well as their respective covariance, and permits to compare quantitatively the relative risk of different debt denominations. The exercise suggests that changing the current debt denomination in fixed interest payments to variable payments indexed to Libor or government bond rates would significantly reduce the volatility of fiscal results. If more recent correlations are considered in the exercise, the results also suggest reducing current currency denomination in US dollars towards a stronger position in euros. An additional analysis that considers the volatility of estimated correlations, however, recommends taking previous conclusions with caution.
Volume (Year): 8 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Raphael Bergoeing & Raimundo Soto, 2005.
"Testing Real Business Cycle Models in a Emerging Economy,"
Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,
in: Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.), General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy, edition 1, volume 9, chapter 7, pages 221-260
Central Bank of Chile.
- Raphael Bergoeing & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Testing Real Business Cycles Models in an Emerging Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 159, Central Bank of Chile.
- Raphael Bergoeing & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Testing Real Business Cycle Models in an Emerging Economy," Documentos de Trabajo 126, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
- Raimundo Soto & Raphael Bergoeing, 2002. "Testing Real Business Cycle Models in an Emerging Economy," Documentos de Trabajo 219, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
- Roberto Duncan, 2003. "The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect Revisited: An Indirect-Utility-Function Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 250, Central Bank of Chile.
- Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985.
"The equity premium: A puzzle,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
- Hall, Robert E, 1988.
"Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-57, April.
- César Calderón M. & Francisco Gallego Y., 2002. "La Tasa de Interés Real Neutral en Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(2), pages 65-72.
- David M Kreps & Evan L Porteus, 1978.
"Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
625018000000000009, David K. Levine.
- Kreps, David M & Porteus, Evan L, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 185-200, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:8:y:2005:i:3:p:55-74. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.