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»Lockdown light« lässt Kurzarbeit im November wieder etwas ansteigen

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Link
  • Stefan Sauer

Abstract

Die Zahl der Beschäftigten in Kurzarbeit in Deutschland ist nach Schätzung des ifo Instituts im November erstmals seit Mai wieder etwas gestiegen. Demnach dürften etwa 2,0 Millionen Personen in Kurzarbeit gewesen sein (5,9% der sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten), nachdem es im Oktober schätzungsweise 1,8 Millionen Personen waren (5,4%). Der Anstieg ist vor allem auf die Wirtschaftsbereiche zurückzuführen, die vom seit Anfang November geltenden »Lockdown light« betroffen sind. Im Gastgewerbe dürfte sich die Zahl der Kurzarbeiter im Vergleich zum Vormonat mehr als verdoppelt haben. Auch im Handel war ein leichter Anstieg zu verzeichnen. Im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe sank der Anteil der Beschäftigten in Kurzarbeit dagegen erneut und dürfte nun erstmals seit Beginn der Coronakrise unter der 10%-Marke liegen. Die Schätzungen beruhen auf der monatlichen Konjunkturumfrage des ifo Instituts unter ca. 7 000 Unternehmen. Die Schätzmethode wurde im Vergleich zu den Vormonaten revidiert. Infolgedessen wurden die Schätzungen für Oktober, für den das ifo Institut ursprünglich von 3,3 Millionen Kurzarbeitern ausging, und die übrigen vorhergehenden Monate nach unten korrigiert.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Link & Stefan Sauer, 2020. "»Lockdown light« lässt Kurzarbeit im November wieder etwas ansteigen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(12), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:73:y:2020:i:12:p:
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lautenbacher, Stefan, 2020. "Subjective Uncertainty, Expectations, and Firm Behavior," MPRA Paper 103516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
    3. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    4. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    5. Kozeniauskas, Nicholas & Orlik, Anna & Veldkamp, Laura, 2018. "What are uncertainty shocks?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 1-15.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kevin Kloiber & Manuel Menkhoff & Sascha Möhrle & Andreas Peichl, 2021. "Städte sind stärker von den wirtschaftlichen Folgen der Coronakrise betroffen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(05), pages 53-58, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unterbeschäftigung; Beschäftigte; Branchenentwicklung; Epidemie; Kurzarbeit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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