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Erwartungen und Sparen: wie wirken Arbeitslosigkeits- und Gesundheitserwartungen auf die Sparentscheidung von Haushalten?

  • Stefan Arent

Individuen möchten ihre Einkommensverhältnisse und damit ihren Konsum nach Möglichkeit über einen langen Zeitraum konstant halten. Dieses Ziel lässt sich am einfachsten durch Sparen erreichen. Dabei stellt sich die Frage, ob bzw. wie Erwartungen über zukünftige Entwicklungen die Sparentscheidungen beeinflussen können. Im einfachsten Fall ist dabei davon auszugehen, dass eine sinkende Einkommenserwartung zu höheren Ersparnissen führen sollte. Für Westdeutschland jedoch lässt sich zeigen, dass eine steigende Arbeitslosigkeitserwartung und damit eine sinkende Einkommenserwartung zu einer Absenkung der kurzfristigen Sparquote führen. Für Ostdeutschland findet sich kein signifikanter Einfluss der Arbeitslosigkeitserwartung auf die Sparquote der Haushalte. Außerdem zeigt sich, dass in Westdeutschland sowohl eine gute Gesundheitserwartung als auch eine gute Gesundheitssituation die Sparneigung erhöhen. Im Osten wirkt beides hingegen negativ auf die Sparquote.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Dresden_berichtet/zs-drber-2012/zs-drber-2012-2/ifodb_2012_2_13_18.pdf
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Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

Volume (Year): 19 (2012)
Issue (Month): 02 (04)
Pages: 13-18

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:19:y:2012:i:02:p:13-18
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  1. Stefan Arent, 2012. "Expectations and Saving Behavior: An Empirical Analysis," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 128, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  2. Stefan Arent & Alexander Eck & Michael Kloss & Oskar Krohmer, 2012. "Income Risk, Saving and Taxation:Will Precautionary Saving Survive?," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 125, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  3. Eeckhoudt, Louis & Schlesinger, Harris, 2008. "Changes in risk and the demand for saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1329-1336, October.
  4. Engen, Eric M. & Gruber, Jonathan, 2001. "Unemployment insurance and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 545-579, June.
  5. Christopher D. Carroll & Karen E. Dynan & Spencer D. Krane, 2003. "Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households' Balance Sheets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 586-604, August.
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