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Les naissances sont retardées mais la fécondité est stable


  • Laurent Toulemon
  • Magali Mazuy


The number of births in France has been roughly constant since 1976, the year of stabilization at the end of the baby boom. After declining in the early 1990s, it has been increasing since 1995 despite the fall in the number of people of an age to be parents : the first baby boomers now approaching retirement age will have had an average of 2.1 children per woman, but will be replaced by smaller cohorts after 1973 due to the delayed age at childbearing. This delay accounts for the total period fertility rate being stable since 1976 at a lower level, of around 1.8 children per woman; a model in which the fertility of women who are already mothers varies with the age of the last child, and not with the age of the mother, produces an estimate of over 2.0 children per woman, close to the completed cohort fertility. The latter will decline slightly for the post 1956 birth cohorts, and is projected to stabilize at around 2.0 children per woman for the 1970 cohort, due to a slight increase in women who will remain childless. Notwithstanding this increase in childlessness, the distribution of women by number of children has been remarkably stable for twenty-five years : family sizes are very homogeneous since nearly two in five women have exactly two children.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Toulemon & Magali Mazuy, 2001. "Les naissances sont retardées mais la fécondité est stable," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 56(4), pages 611-644.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:popine:popu_104_0611

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    Cited by:

    1. doctorants Ined, 2015. "Actes de la Journée Doctorale de l’Ined - 2015," Working Papers 219, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED).
    2. Thierry Debrand & Didier Blanchet & Paul Dourgnon & Anne Laferrère, 2007. "Santé, vieillissement et retraite en Europe," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 403(1), pages 3-18.
    3. Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Evgueni M. Andreev & René Houle & James W. Vaupel, 2004. "To concentration of reproduction in cohorts of US and European women," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2004-027, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin & Laurent Toulemon, 2005. "Does Postponement Explain the Trend to Later Childbearing in France?," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 3(1), pages 83-107.
    5. Isabelle Bubner-Ennsner, 2003. "en:The influence of the distribution of household and childrearing tasks between men and woman on childbearing intentions in Austria," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 1(1), pages 165-180.
    6. Laurent Toulemon & Ariane Pailhé & Clémentine Rossier, 2008. "France: High and stable fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(16), pages 503-556, July.
    7. Chantal Brutel, 2002. "La population de la France métropolitaine en 2050 : un vieillissement inéluctable," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 355(1), pages 57-71.

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