IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cai/popine/popu_104_0611.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Les naissances sont retardées mais la fécondité est stable

Author

Listed:
  • Laurent Toulemon
  • Magali Mazuy

Abstract

The number of births in France has been roughly constant since 1976, the year of stabilization at the end of the baby boom. After declining in the early 1990s, it has been increasing since 1995 despite the fall in the number of people of an age to be parents : the first baby boomers now approaching retirement age will have had an average of 2.1 children per woman, but will be replaced by smaller cohorts after 1973 due to the delayed age at childbearing. This delay accounts for the total period fertility rate being stable since 1976 at a lower level, of around 1.8 children per woman; a model in which the fertility of women who are already mothers varies with the age of the last child, and not with the age of the mother, produces an estimate of over 2.0 children per woman, close to the completed cohort fertility. The latter will decline slightly for the post 1956 birth cohorts, and is projected to stabilize at around 2.0 children per woman for the 1970 cohort, due to a slight increase in women who will remain childless. Notwithstanding this increase in childlessness, the distribution of women by number of children has been remarkably stable for twenty-five years : family sizes are very homogeneous since nearly two in five women have exactly two children.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Toulemon & Magali Mazuy, 2001. "Les naissances sont retardées mais la fécondité est stable," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 56(4), pages 611-644.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:popine:popu_104_0611
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/load_pdf.php?ID_ARTICLE=POPU_104_0611
    Download Restriction: free

    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/revue-population-2001-4-page-611.htm
    Download Restriction: free

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. doctorants Ined, 2015. "Actes de la Journée Doctorale de l’Ined - 2015," Working Papers 219, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED).
    2. Thierry Debrand & Didier Blanchet & Paul Dourgnon & Anne Laferrère, 2007. "Santé, vieillissement et retraite en Europe," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 403(1), pages 3-18.
    3. Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Evgueni M. Andreev & René Houle & James W. Vaupel, 2004. "To concentration of reproduction in cohorts of US and European women," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2004-027, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin & Laurent Toulemon, 2005. "Does Postponement Explain the Trend to Later Childbearing in France?," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 3(1), pages 83-107.
    5. Isabelle Bubner-Ennsner, 2003. "en:The influence of the distribution of household and childrearing tasks between men and woman on childbearing intentions in Austria," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 1(1), pages 165-180.
    6. Laurent Toulemon & Ariane Pailhé & Clémentine Rossier, 2008. "France: High and stable fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(16), pages 503-556, July.
    7. Chantal Brutel, 2002. "La population de la France métropolitaine en 2050 : un vieillissement inéluctable," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 355(1), pages 57-71.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cai:popine:popu_104_0611. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire). General contact details of provider: http://www.cairn.info/revue-population.htm .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.