IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/sndecm/v19y2015i5p669-689n1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stock market’s reaction to money supply: a nonparametric analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Taamouti Abderrahim

    (Durham University Business School, Mill Hill Lane, Durham, DH1 3LB, UK)

Abstract

We empirically investigate the link between monetary policy measures and stock market prices. We document the following stylized facts about stock market’s reaction to money supply and examine the effect across the entire distribution of stock returns. Using a nonparametric Granger causality in mean test, we find that money supply has no impact on stock prices, which confirms many of the existing results that were based on linear mean regression. By contrast, when a nonparametric causality in distribution (hereafter general Granger causality) test and quantile regression based test were used, the effect of money becomes apparent and statistically very significant. Interestingly, money supply affects the left and right tails of stock return distribution but not its center. This might indicate that the monetary policy measure money supply is effective only during recessions and expansions. We have also investigated the extent to which the impact of money supply on stock returns detected by the nonparametric and quantile regression based tests can be attributed to a time-varying conditional variance of stock returns. After controlling for volatility persistence in stock returns, we continue to find evidence for the reaction of conditional distribution of stock market returns to money supply growth rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Taamouti Abderrahim, 2015. "Stock market’s reaction to money supply: a nonparametric analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(5), pages 669-689, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:19:y:2015:i:5:p:669-689:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/snde-2013-0059
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2013-0059
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/snde-2013-0059?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Diks, Cees G.H., 2008. "The nonlinear dynamic relationship of exchange rates: Parametric and nonparametric causality testing," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1641-1650, December.
    2. repec:taf:jnlbes:v:30:y:2012:i:2:p:275-287 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Balvers, Ronald J. & Huang, Dayong, 2009. "Money and the C-CAPM," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 337-368, April.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2011. "Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule During the Financial Crisis? Comparing Ex-post and Real Time Data with Real Time Forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 147-171, September.
    5. Chan, K C & Foresi, Silverio & Lang, Larry H P, 1996. "Does Money Explain Asset Returns? Theory and Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 345-361, March.
    6. Buchinsky, Moshe, 1995. "Estimating the asymptotic covariance matrix for quantile regression models a Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 303-338, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Xiang & Li, Yu-Ning & Zhang, Li-Xin & Zhao, Jun, 2024. "Inference for high-dimensional linear expectile regression with de-biasing method," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    2. Md Fouad Bin Amin & Mohd Ziaur Rehman, 2022. "Asymmetric Linkages of Oil Prices, Money Supply, and TASI on Sectoral Stock Prices in Saudi Arabia: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gonzalo, Jesús & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2012. "The reaction of stock market returns to anticipated unemployment," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1237, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    2. Gonzalo, Jesús & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2011. "The reaction of stock market returns to anticipated unemployment," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1145, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    3. Grishchenko, Olesya V., 2011. "Asset pricing in the production economy subject to monetary shocks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 187-216, May.
    4. Li Gu & Dayong Huang, 2013. "Consumption, Money, Intratemporal Substitution, And Cross-Sectional Asset Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 115-146, January.
    5. Atanasov, Victoria, 2016. "Conditional interest rate risk and the cross-section of excess stock returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 23-32.
    6. Maio, Paulo & Silva, André C., 2020. "Asset pricing implications of money: New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    7. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    8. Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra E., 2007. "Implementing Nonparametric and Semiparametric Estimators," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 74, Elsevier.
    9. Peoples, James & Talley, Wayne K. & Thanabordeekij, Pithoon, 2006. "Shipping Deregulation's Wage Effect on Low and High Wage Dockworkers," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 219-249, January.
    10. Brunner, Eric & Sonstelie, Jon, 2003. "School finance reform and voluntary fiscal federalism," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 2157-2185, September.
    11. Andreas Kaloudis & Dimitrios Tsolis, 2019. "Capital Structure and Speed of Adjustment in U.S. Firms. Α Comparative Study in Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Conditions-A Quantile Regression Approach," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(10), pages 98-109, October.
    12. Parente, Paulo M.D.C. & Smith, Richard J., 2011. "Gel Methods For Nonsmooth Moment Indicators," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 74-113, February.
    13. Jamil, Abd Rahim Md. & Law, Siong Hook & Mohamad Khair-Afham, M.S. & Trinugroho, Irwan, 2023. "Financial inclusion and economic uncertainty in developing countries: The role of digitalisation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 786-806.
    14. Akosah, Nana & Alagidede, Imhotep & Schaling, Eric, 2019. "Unfolding the monetary policy rule in Ghana: quantile-based evidence within time-frequency framework," MPRA Paper 103260, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Oct 2020.
    15. Antonio F. Galvao & Thomas Parker & Zhijie Xiao, 2024. "Bootstrap Inference for Panel Data Quantile Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 628-639, April.
    16. Komunjer, Ivana, 2005. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation for conditional quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 137-164, September.
    17. Karthigai Prakasam Chellaswamy & Natchimuthu N & Muhammadriyaj Faniband, 2020. "Stock Market Sensitivity to Macroeconomic Factors: Evidence from China and India," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(2), pages 146-159, February.
    18. Duc Hong Vo & Thach Ngoc Pham, 2017. "Systematic Risk in Energy Businesses: Empirical Evidence for the ASEAN," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 553-565.
    19. Victoria Atanasov, 2016. "Conditional interest rate risk and the cross‐section of excess stock returns," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 23-32, September.
    20. Tobias Angel & Alexandre Berthe & Valeria Costantini & Mariagrazia D’Angeli, 2024. "How the nature of inequality reduction matters for CO2 emissions," Working Papers 2024.14, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Granger causality in quantile; money supply; nonparametric Granger causality in distribution; nonparametric Granger causality in mean; stock prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:19:y:2015:i:5:p:669-689:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.