Using Conditional Estimates to Simulate In-Play Outcomes in Limited Overs Cricket
This paper uses conditional probability distributions to simulate batsman outcomesâthat is, runs and dismissalsâwhile a limited overs cricket match is in play. The research was motivated by the potential to assess, and reassess, the likelihood of a batsman achieving a certain score within a specified interval. These likelihoods were conditional on the batsman type, a linear combination of batsman order, strike rate and contribution to team runs, and the delivery number, both discrete variables. A Visual Basic program, SimScore, was written to simulate batsman scores from the probability distributions pertaining to the match stages of interest. The scores were then adjusted for team strength, innings and venue effects, using multiple regression. The paper demonstrates the benefits of the model by fitting log-normal distributions to simulated innings (n=500) by Australiaâs Ricky Ponting in the 2011 cricket World Cup quarter final. The distributions allowed us to approximate how likely he was to achieve a certain score prior to the match and at 10-, 20- and 30-over stages. It is anticipated that real-time information of a batsman's score expectations will add confidence to wagering in individual performance marketsâsuch as âhighest individual scoreââas well as making possible in-play player rating revisions.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 8 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.degruyter.com |
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jqas|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:8:y:2012:i:2:n:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.