Finally, Evidence for a Momentum Effect in the NBA
No previous study on momentum in team sports has found any valid evidence for a momentum effecti.e., an effect of success in the past few games, over and above the effect of team quality. We develop an econometric model to determine if there is a momentum effect in the NBA by examining how success over the past few games leads to a higher probability of winning the next game. The model takes into account the home vs. away strengths of the teams in the current game as well as their opponents in the previous games (to calculate measures of adjusted success over the past few games). Thus, success in previous games is adjusted for quality of the wins or losses. In addition, we account for rest days before the current game for both teams. Using data over three NBA seasons (2007-2009), we find strong evidence for a positive momentum effect.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 7 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.degruyter.com|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jqas|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- C. Sire & S. Redner, 2009. "Understanding baseball team standings and streaks," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 67(3), pages 473-481, February.
- Arkes Jeremy, 2010. "Revisiting the Hot Hand Theory with Free Throw Data in a Multivariate Framework," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-12, January.
- Ioannis Asimakopoulos & John Goddard, 2004. "Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 51-66.
- Daniel M. Oppenheimer & Benoit Monin, 2009. "The retrospective gambler's fallacy: Unlikely events, constructing the past, and multiple universes," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 4(5), pages 326-334, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:7:y:2011:i:3:n:13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.