IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/fhecpo/v10y2007i2n1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Aging and Future Healthcare Expenditure: A Consistent Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Steinmann Lukas

    () (Avenir Suisse, Switzerland)

  • Telser Harry

    () (University of Zurich, Switzerland)

  • Zweifel Peter S.

    () (University of Zurich, Switzerland)

Abstract

The impact of aging on healthcare expenditure (HCE) has been at the center of a prolonged debate. This paper purports to shed light on several issues of this debate by presenting new evidence on the "red herring" hypothesis advanced by Zweifel, Felder and Meier (1999). This hypothesis amounts to distinguishing a mortality from a morbidity component in healthcare expenditure (HCE) and claiming that failure to make this distinction results in excessive estimates of future growth of HCE. A re-estimation based on a much larger data set is performed, using the refined econometric methodology. The main contribution is consistency, however. Rather than treating the mortality component as a residual in forecasting, its dynamics are analyzed in the same detail as that of the morbidity component when predicting the impact of population aging on the future growth of HCE. For the case of Switzerland, it finds this impact to be relatively small regardless of whether or not the mortality component is accounted for, thus qualifying the "red herring" hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Steinmann Lukas & Telser Harry & Zweifel Peter S., 2007. "Aging and Future Healthcare Expenditure: A Consistent Approach," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-28, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:fhecpo:v:10:y:2007:i:2:n:1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/fhep.2007.10.2/fhep.2007.10.2.1041/fhep.2007.10.2.1041.xml?format=INT
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mason, Thomas & Sutton, Matt & Whittaker, William & Birch, Stephen, 2015. "Exploring the limitations of age-based models for health care planning," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 11-19.
    2. Wen-Yi Chen & Miin-Jye Wen & Yu-Hui Lin & Yia-Wun Liang, 2016. "On the relationship between healthcare expenditure and longevity: evidence from the continuous wavelet analyses," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 1041-1057, May.
    3. Breyer Friedrich, 2015. "Demographischer Wandel und Gesundheitsausgaben: Theorie, Empirie und Politikimplikationen," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 215-230, October.
    4. Stefan Felder, 2013. "The Impact of Demographic Change on Healthcare Expenditure," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(1), pages 03-06, 04.
    5. repec:jns:jbstat:v:227:y:2007:i:5-6:p:578-602 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Eugster, Patrick & Sennhauser, Michèle & Zweifel, Peter, 2010. "Capping risk adjustment?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 499-507, July.
    7. Sophie Mitra & Patricia A. Findley & Usha Sambamoorthi, 2008. "Healthcare Expenditures of Living with a Disability: Total Expenditures, Out of Pocket Expenses and Burden, 1996-2004," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2008-18, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    8. Viktor von Wyl & Konstantin Beck, 2014. "Risk adjustment in aging societies," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-14, December.
    9. repec:ces:ifodic:v:11:y:2013:i:1:p:19078503 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:fhecpo:v:10:y:2007:i:2:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.