IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/evoice/v16y2019i1p5n11.html

Brexit and its Impact on the Pound in the Foreign Exchange Market

Author

Listed:
  • Pilbeam Keith

    (City, University of London, Department of Economics, London EC1V 0HB, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland)

Abstract

In this paper we outline the impact and likely future impact of Brexit on the pound. We argue that Brexit implies a significant depreciation of the pound and the degree of depreciation required is heavily linked to whether there will be a soft or hard Brexit. We find that the pound has had broadly similar depreciations to date against both the dollar and the euro. Brexit has considerably raised UK economic policy uncertainty and this, in turn, has at times led to an significant increase in future implied volatility of the pound. While there is an overall link between the state of the ongoing Brexit negotiations with the European Union and movements in the pound in the foreign exchange market, the link is not especially strong unless the perception that the negotiations are going badly has exceeded 60%.

Suggested Citation

  • Pilbeam Keith, 2019. "Brexit and its Impact on the Pound in the Foreign Exchange Market," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-5, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:evoice:v:16:y:2019:i:1:p:5:n:11
    DOI: 10.1515/ev-2019-0026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/ev-2019-0026
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/ev-2019-0026?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arthur Korus & Kaan Celebi, 2018. "The Impact of Brexit on the British Pound/Euro Exchange rate," EIIW Discussion paper disbei243, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    2. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Scarlet Chen & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwaites, 2019. "The impact of Brexit on UK firms," Bank of England working papers 818, Bank of England.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simon Hartmann & Thomas Lindner & Jakob Müllner & Jonas Puck, 2022. "Beyond the nation-state: Anchoring supranational institutions in international business research," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 53(6), pages 1282-1306, August.
    2. Altig, Dave & Baker, Scott & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Davis, Steven J. & Leather, Julia & Meyer, Brent & Mihaylov, Emil & Mizen, Paul & Parker, Nicholas &, 2020. "Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Bergin, Paul R. & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 2023. "The macroeconomic stabilization of tariff shocks: What is the optimal monetary response?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Steven J. Davis, 2019. "Rising Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Costa, Rui & Dhingra, Swati & Machin, Stephen, 2024. "New dawn fades: Trade, labour and the Brexit exchange rate depreciation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Julien Martin & Alejandra Martinez & Isabelle Mejean, 2019. "The cost of Brexit uncertainty: missing partners for French exporters," Post-Print halshs-02515757, HAL.
    7. Elsayed, Mohamed & Elshandidy, Tamer & Ahmed, Yousry, 2022. "Corporate failure in the UK: An examination of corporate governance reforms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2019. "Exchange Rates and Consumer Prices: Evidence from Brexit," CESifo Working Paper Series 8001, CESifo.
    9. Do, Hang & Duong, Kiet Tuan & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan & Vu, Nam T., 2025. "The Real effects of Brexit on labor demand: Evidence from firm-level data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    10. Ana Venâncio & João Pereira dos Santos, 2021. "The effect of Brexit on British workers living in the EU," Working Papers REM 2021/0197, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    11. Patrizia Casadei & Simona Iammarino, 2021. "Trade policy shocks in the UK textile and apparel value chain: Firm perceptions of Brexit uncertainty," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(2), pages 262-285, June.
    12. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Imbierowicz, Björn & Nagengast, Arne & Prieto, Esteban & Vogel, Ursula, 2025. "Bank lending and firm internal capital markets following a deglobalization shock," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    14. Canales, Mario & Lopez-Martin, Bernabe, 2024. "Exchange rates, uncertainty, and price-setting: Evidence from CPI microdata," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    15. José-Luis Peydró & Francesc R. Tous & Jagdish Tripathy & Arzu Uluc, 2020. "Macroprudential policy, mortgage cycles and distributional effects: Evidence from the UK," Economics Working Papers 1725, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    16. Michael Peneder & Benjamin Bittschi & Anna Burton & Angela Köppl & Thomas Url, 2024. "The WIFO Radar of Competitiveness for the Austrian Economy 2023," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 2, January.
    17. Eduardo Gutiérrez & Aitor Lacuesta & César Martín‐Machuca, 2024. "Brexit: Trade Diversion due to Trade Policy Uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(5), pages 1058-1088, October.
    18. Josh De Lyon & Swati Dhingra, 2020. "Covid-19 and Brexit: Real-time updates on business performance in the United Kingdom," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-006, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    19. Geiger, Martin & Güntner, Jochen, 2024. "The chronology of Brexit and UK monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    20. Andrzej Cieślik & Oleg Gurshev & Sarhad Hamza, 2022. "Between the Eurozone crisis and the Brexit: the decade of British outward FDI into Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1159-1192, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:evoice:v:16:y:2019:i:1:p:5:n:11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyterbrill.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.