Prospects for the Greek Economy in the Post‐enlargement Era

This paper examines the consequences for Greece of the EU enlargement eastwards. The analysis is based on an evaluation of the Greek economy competitiveness relative to the economies of the acceding and candidate countries during the last decade. Using data disaggregated up to the third digit, the magnitude of Greek inter‐ and intra‐industry trade with the above countries is determined and contrasted to the corresponding trade with the EU. Other issues examined are the effects from factor movements such as the FDI flows and migration, and the macroeconomic effects from the reallocation of EU funds. Enlargement is expected to exert positive trade and FDI effects on the Greek economy, a negative effect on future economic growth as a result of budgetary reductions and an uncertain effect on labour markets from migration. A non‐exploited trade potential of Greece with the Balkan countries creates further opportunities for regional development.