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The Drug‐Laden Balloon: U.S. Military Assistance and Coca Production in the Central Andes

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  • Stella M. Rouse
  • Moises Arce

Abstract

Objective. This article explores the empirical effects of U.S. drug policy on coca cultivation in the Central Andes. We assess the impact of U.S. military assistance on the production of coca in the Central Andes, while controlling for other explanatory variables that influence coca cultivation. Method. Using data from 1980–2001 for Colombia, Bolivia, and Peru, we perform a pooled cross‐sectional time‐series analysis. Results. The effects of U.S. military assistance on coca cultivation are not uniform across the Central Andes. Coca production decreased in Bolivia and Peru and increased in Colombia. Total coca production in the Central Andes, however, remained unchanged. Conclusion. This study is consistent with existing literature that points out the obstacles governments face as they attempt to suppress illicit goods. Specifically, our empirical findings support the idea of the “balloon effect,” whereby government efforts to “squeeze” illicit trade in one area result in the expansion of that trade elsewhere.

Suggested Citation

  • Stella M. Rouse & Moises Arce, 2006. "The Drug‐Laden Balloon: U.S. Military Assistance and Coca Production in the Central Andes," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 87(3), pages 540-557, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:87:y:2006:i:3:p:540-557
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6237.2006.00395.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William Easterly, 2002. "The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists' Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262550423, December.
    2. Andres Solimano, 2000. "Colombia : Essays on Conflict, Peace, and Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14752, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Greenfield, Victoria A. & Bond, Craig A. & Crane, Keith, 2017. "A household model of opium-poppy cultivation in Afghanistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 741-761.
    2. Eleonora Dávalos & Leonardo Fabio Morales, 2019. "Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 17350, Universidad EAFIT.
    3. Leonardo Raffo López & Javier Andr�s Castro & Alexander D�az Espa�a, 2016. "Los efectos globo en los cultivos de coca en la región andina (1990-2009)," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 35(61), pages 207-2036.
    4. Cianchella, Maurizio, 2025. "Prohibition and Beyond. A Critical History of Drug Control," SocArXiv ft68u_v1, Center for Open Science.

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