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A new indicator of coalition size: Tests against standard regime‐type indicators

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  • Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
  • Alastair Smith

Abstract

Objective We develop a new measure for selectorate's theory central concept, winning coalition size, using indicators developed by the V‐Dem project. Methods To demonstrate the measure's efficacy, we examine its ability to account for government provision of public and private goods, a central prediction in selection theory. The winning coalition measure is compared to eight widely used indicators of regime type in analyses of 30 measures of government policy provision. Results Based on Vuong tests and Akaike information criteria, the new measure generally outperforms the alternative regime measures whether the assessment is across all regimes, within nondemocratic regimes or within democratic settings. Conclusion The new indicator provides an improved tool for testing the nuances of selectorate theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce Bueno de Mesquita & Alastair Smith, 2022. "A new indicator of coalition size: Tests against standard regime‐type indicators," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 103(2), pages 365-379, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:103:y:2022:i:2:p:365-379
    DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13123
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    1. James Raymond Vreeland, 2008. "The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 52(3), pages 401-425, June.
    2. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    3. Marquardt, Kyle L. & Pemstein, Daniel, 2018. "IRT Models for Expert-Coded Panel Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 431-456, October.
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    1. Henninger, Ella & Smith, E. Keith, 2024. "Beyond the haze: Decomposing the effect of economic inequality on global air quality from 2000 to 2020," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).

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