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Improper priors and improper posteriors

Author

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  • Gunnar Taraldsen
  • Jarle Tufto
  • Bo H. Lindqvist

Abstract

What is a good prior? Actual prior knowledge should be used, but for complex models this is often not easily available. The knowledge can be in the form of symmetry assumptions, and then the choice will typically be an improper prior. Also more generally, it is quite common to choose improper priors. Motivated by this we consider a theoretical framework for statistics that includes both improper priors and improper posteriors. Knowledge is then represented by a possibly unbounded measure with interpretation as explained by Rényi in 1955. The main mathematical result here is a constructive proof of existence of a transformation from prior to posterior knowledge. The posterior always exists and is uniquely defined by the prior, the observed data, and the statistical model. The transformation is, as it should be, an extension of conventional Bayesian inference as defined by the axioms of Kolmogorov. It is an extension since the novel construction is valid also when replacing the axioms of Kolmogorov by the axioms of Rényi for a conditional probability space. A concrete case based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations and data for different species of tropical butterflies illustrate that an improper posterior may appear naturally and is useful. The theory is also exemplified by more elementary examples.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunnar Taraldsen & Jarle Tufto & Bo H. Lindqvist, 2022. "Improper priors and improper posteriors," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 49(3), pages 969-991, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:scjsta:v:49:y:2022:i:3:p:969-991
    DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12550
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taraldsen, Gunnar & Lindqvist, Bo Henry, 2010. "Improper Priors Are Not Improper," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 64(2), pages 154-158.
    2. Berger J.O. & De Oliveira V. & Sanso B., 2001. "Objective Bayesian Analysis of Spatially Correlated Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1361-1374, December.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1908 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jan Hannig & Hari Iyer & Randy C. S. Lai & Thomas C. M. Lee, 2016. "Generalized Fiducial Inference: A Review and New Results," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(515), pages 1346-1361, July.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5724 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gunnar Taraldsen & Bo Henry Lindqvist, 2016. "Conditional probability and improper priors," Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(17), pages 5007-5016, September.
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