IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jbfnac/v30y2003i1-2p213-256.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Contrarian Investment and Macroeconomic Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Alan Gregory
  • Richard D.F. Harris
  • Maria Michou

Abstract

It is now widely accepted that contrarian, or value investment strategies deliver superior returns. Gregory, Harris and Michou (2001) examine the performance of contrarian investment strategies in the UK and find that value strategies formed on the basis of a wide range of measures of value have delivered excess returns that are both statistically and economically significant. However, while value strategies appear to be profitable, the reason for their superior perform‐ ance is far from clear. Under the contrarian model, value strategies are profitable because they are contrarian to naïve strategies such as those that erroneously extrapolate past performance, while under the rational pricing model, value strategies are profitable because they are fundamentally riskier in some sense. In this paper, we discriminate between these two possibilities by undertaking a comprehensive investigation of the relationship between the returns to value investment strategies and various macroeconomic state variables that in a multi‐factor asset pricing model could reasonably be taken as proxies for risk. Moreover, we examine whether the returns to value strategies predict future GDP, consumption and investment growth over and above the contribution of the Fama and French (1993 and 1996) SMB, HML and market factors. While the SMB and HML factors behave in a manner consistent with the rational pricing model, we show that some value strategies in the UK are able to generate excess returns that do not seem to be related to known risk factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan Gregory & Richard D.F. Harris & Maria Michou, 2003. "Contrarian Investment and Macroeconomic Risk," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1‐2), pages 213-256, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:30:y:2003:i:1-2:p:213-256
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-5957.00004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5957.00004
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1468-5957.00004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    2. Alan Gregory & Richard D.F. Harris & Maria Michou, 2001. "An Analysis of Contrarian Investment Strategies in the UK," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9‐10), pages 1192-1228, November.
    3. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    4. Iwan Brouwer, 1997. "Contrarian Investment Strategies in a European Context," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(9&10), pages 1353-1366.
    5. Basu, S, 1977. "Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 663-682, June.
    6. Solnik, Bruno, 1993. "The performance of international asset allocation strategies using conditioning information," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 33-55, June.
    7. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    8. Jaffe, Jeffrey & Keim, Donald B & Westerfield, Randolph, 1989. " Earnings Yields, Market Values, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 135-148, March.
    9. Alan Gregory & Richard D.F. Harris & Maria Michou, 2001. "An Analysis of Contrarian Investment Strategies in the UK," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9‐10), pages 1192-1228, November.
    10. Ferson, Wayne E & Schadt, Rudi W, 1996. "Measuring Fund Strategy and Performance in Changing Economic Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 425-461, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dina Gabbori & Basel Awartani & Aktham Maghyereh & Nader Virk, 2021. "OPEC meetings, oil market volatility and herding behaviour in the Saudi Arabia stock market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 870-888, January.
    2. Gębka, Bartosz & Korczak, Adriana & Korczak, Piotr & Traczykowski, Jędrzej, 2017. "Profitability of insider trading in Europe: A performance evaluation approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 66-90.
    3. Pasaribu, Rowland Bismark Fernando, 2009. "Kinerja Pasar dan Informasi Akuntansi sebagai Pembentuk Portfolio Saham [Market Performance and Accounting Information as the Reference of Stocks Portfolio Formation in Indonesia Stock Exchange]," MPRA Paper 36982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Rong, Wu & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2015. "Herding on fundamental information: A comparative study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 589-598.
    5. Amit Hedau, 2020. "Value Investing: Evidence From Listed Construction And Infrastucture Sector Companies In India," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 15(4), pages 104-114, december.
    6. Walid Saleh, 2014. "Explaining the Cross-Sectional Patterns of UK Expected Stock Returns: The Effect of Intangibles," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 160-170, April.
    7. Kwame Addae-Dapaah & James Webb & Kim Ho & Yan Tan, 2010. "Industrial Real Estate Investment: Does the Contrarian Strategy Work?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 193-227, August.
    8. Leone, Vitor & de Medeiros, Otavio Ribeiro, 2015. "Signalling the Dotcom bubble: A multiple changes in persistence approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 77-86.
    9. F. Javier De Peña & Carlos Forner-Rodríguez & Germán López-Espinosa, 2008. "Fundamentals and the origin of Fama-French factors," Faculty Working Papers 04/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    10. Varios Autores, 2019. "El maestro y su desarrollo profesional en Colombia: abordajes desde la investigación," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Ciencias de la Educación, number 32, April.
    11. Ali Fayyaz Munir & Shahrin Saaid Shaharuddin & Mohd Edil Abd Sukor & Mohamed Albaity & Izlin Ismail, 2021. "Financial liberalization and the behavior of reversals in emerging market economies," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 17(6), pages 1565-1582, January.
    12. Grout, Paul A. & Zalewska, Anna, 2006. "The impact of regulation on market risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 149-184, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Keith Anderson & Chris Brooks, 2005. "The Long-Term P/E Radio," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2005-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    2. Keith Anderson & Chris Brooks, 2006. "The Long‐Term Price‐Earnings Ratio," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(7‐8), pages 1063-1086, September.
    3. Eero Pätäri & Timo Leivo, 2017. "A Closer Look At Value Premium: Literature Review And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 79-168, February.
    4. Sudi Sudarsanam & Ashraf A. Mahate, 2003. "Glamour Acquirers, Method of Payment and Post‐acquisition Performance: The UK Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1‐2), pages 299-342, January.
    5. Amit Hedau, 2020. "Value Investing: Evidence From Listed Construction And Infrastucture Sector Companies In India," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 15(4), pages 104-114, december.
    6. Mattias Hamberg & Jiri Novak, 2010. "Accounting Conservatism and Transitory Earnings in Value and Growth Strategies," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5‐6), pages 518-537, June.
    7. Alan Gregory & Maria Michou, 2009. "Industry Cost of Equity Capital: UK Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5‐6), pages 679-704, June.
    8. Keith Anderson & Chris Brooks, 2006. "The Long-Term Price-Earnings Ratio," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(7-8), pages 1063-1086.
    9. Muhammad Kashif & Sanyah Saad & Imran Umer Chhapra & Farhan Ahmed, 2018. "An Empirical Evidence of Over Reaction Hypothesis on Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE)," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(4), pages 449-465, April.
    10. Gikas Hardouvelis & George Papanastasopoulos & Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Tao Wang, 2007. "Accruals, Net Stock Issues and Value-Glamour Anomalies: New Evidence on their Relation," Working Paper series 47_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    11. Keith Lam & Frank Li, 2008. "The risk premiums of the four-factor asset pricing model in the Hong Kong stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(20), pages 1667-1680.
    12. Trabelsi, Mohamed Ali, 2010. "Choix de portefeuille: comparaison des différentes stratégies [Portfolio selection: comparison of different strategies]," MPRA Paper 82946, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Dec 2010.
    13. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, "undated". "The Cross Section of Common Stock Returns: A Review of the Evidence and Some New Findings," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 08-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    14. Fletcher, Jonathan & Hillier, Joe, 2002. "On the usefulness of linear factor models in predicting expected returns in mean-variance analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 449-466.
    15. Maria Michou, 2009. "Is the Value Spread a Good Predictor of Stock Returns? UK Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7‐8), pages 925-950, September.
    16. Antonios Antoniou & Emilios C. Galariotis & Spyros I. Spyrou, 2006. "Short‐term Contrarian Strategies in the London Stock Exchange: Are They Profitable? Which Factors Affect Them?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5‐6), pages 839-867, June.
    17. Philip Gharghori & Sebastian Stryjkowski & Madhu Veeraraghavan, 2013. "Value versus growth: Australian evidence," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(2), pages 393-417, June.
    18. Fletcher, Jonathan & Hillier, Joe, 2002. "An examination of the economic significance of stock return predictability in UK stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 373-392.
    19. Angela J. Black & David G. McMillan, 2004. "Non‐linear Predictability of Value and Growth Stocks and Economic Activity," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3‐4), pages 439-474, April.
    20. Ferson, Wayne E. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Fundamental determinants of national equity market returns: A perspective on conditional asset pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1625-1665, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:30:y:2003:i:1-2:p:213-256. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0306-686X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.