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Give Macroeconomic Stability and Growth in Russia a Chance

Author

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  • Brian Pinto
  • Vladimir Drebentsov
  • Alexander Morozov

Abstract

This paper identifies and investigates conceptual and empirical links among Russia's disappointing growth performance of the mid‐1990s, its costly and eventually unsuccessful stabilization, the macroeconomic meltdown of 1998 and the spectacular rise of non‐payments. Non‐payments developed into a system that flourished in an atmosphere of fundamental inconsistency between a macroeconomic policy geared at sharp disinflation and a microeconomic policy of bailing‐out enterprises through soft budget constraints. It embodies a large volume of untargeted, implicit subsidies in the order of 7–10 per cent of GDP, which has stifled growth, contributed to the 1998 meltdown through its impact on public debt and made at best a questionable contribution to equity. The overwhelming priority at this point is to dismantle this system, thereby promoting enterprise restructuring and growth (by hardening budget constraints) and medium‐term macroeconomic stability (by reducing the size of the subsidies).

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Pinto & Vladimir Drebentsov & Alexander Morozov, 2000. "Give Macroeconomic Stability and Growth in Russia a Chance," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(2), pages 297-324, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:8:y:2000:i:2:p:297-324
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0351.00046
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    Cited by:

    1. Kornai, János & Maskin, Eric & Roland, Gérard, 2022. "A puha költségvetési korlát - I [The soft budget constraint I]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 75-93.
    2. Desai, Raj M. & Freinkman, Lev & Goldberg, Itzhak, 2005. "Fiscal federalism in rentier regions: Evidence from Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 814-834, December.
    3. Guriev, Sergei & Kvassov, Dmitri, 2004. "Barter for price discrimination," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 329-350, March.
    4. Kitty Stewart & Carmen Huerta, 2006. "Reinvesting in Children? Policies for the very young in South Eastern Europe and the CIS," Papers inwopa06/35, Innocenti Working Papers.
    5. World Bank, 2003. "Public Expenditure Review for Armenia," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15086.
    6. J. Kornai & E. Maskin & G. Roland, 2004. "Understanding the Soft Budget Constraint," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 11.
    7. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Pirttila, Jukka, 2004. "Money, barter, and inflation in Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 297-314, June.
    8. Mechthild SCHROOTEN, 2003. "Fiscal Federalism And Regional Development In Russia," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 18, pages 53-72.
    9. Brucker, Herbert & Schroder, Philipp J.H. & Weise, Christian, 2005. "Can EU conditionality remedy soft budget constraints in transition countries?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 371-386, June.
    10. Micklewright, John & Klugman, Jeni & Redmond, Gerry, 2002. "Poverty in the Transition: Social Expenditures and the Working-Age Poor," CEPR Discussion Papers 3389, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Babetskaia-Kukharchuk, Oxana & Maurel, Mathilde, 2004. "Russia's accession to the WTO: the potential for trade increase," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 680-699, December.
    12. Minzyuk, Larysa, 2010. "The development of non-monetary means of payment," MPRA Paper 28167, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
    13. Jos?? Noguera & Susan J. Linz, 2005. "Barter, Credit, and Welfare: A theoretical inquiry into the barter phenomenon in Russia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp757, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    14. World Bank, 2003. "Armenia : Public Expenditure Review," World Bank Publications - Reports 13926, The World Bank Group.
    15. Brian Pinto & Sergei Ulatov, 2010. "Russia 1998 Revisited : Lessons for Financial Globalization," World Bank Publications - Reports 10153, The World Bank Group.
    16. Sharify, Nooraddin, 2013. "Input–output modelling of the effect of implicit subsidies on general prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 913-917.
    17. Luoana D. Santarossa, 2001. "Arrears as a Sign of Financial Repression in Transition Economies - The Case of Romania," CERT Discussion Papers 0104, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    18. Pinto, Brian & Ulatov, Sergei, 2010. "Russia 1998 Revisited: Lessons for Financial Globalization," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 37, pages 1-4, October.
    19. World Bank, 2003. "Russia : Development Policy Review," World Bank Publications - Reports 13874, The World Bank Group.
    20. Herbert Brücker & Philipp Schröder, 2007. "EU accession and the hardening of soft budget constraints: some macro evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 235-252, September.

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