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Writing history backwards or sideways: towards a consensus on African population, 1850–2010

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  • Ewout Frankema
  • Morten Jerven

Abstract

type="main"> This article aims to make an empirical and theoretical contribution towards the creation of a continent-wide dataset on African population extending into the pre-1950 era. We investigate the reliability and the validity of the current population databases with the aim of working towards a consensus on the long-term series of African total population with a reliable 1950 benchmark. The cases of Kenya, Nigeria, and Ghana are explored to show the uneven coverage of census taking in colonial and post-colonial Africa and to demonstrate the need for an upward adjustment of the conventional 1950 benchmark. In addition, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of Manning's approach of projecting population growth estimates backwards in time by adopting the available Indian census data as African ‘default growth rates’, and we propose an alternative approach by incorporating the demographic experiences of tropical land-abundant countries in South-East Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Ewout Frankema & Morten Jerven, 2014. "Writing history backwards or sideways: towards a consensus on African population, 1850–2010," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(4), pages 907-931, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ehsrev:v:67:y:2014:i:4:p:907-931
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1468-0289.12041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ewout H.P. Frankema, 2012. "The origins of formal education in sub-Saharan Africa: was British rule more benign?," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 16(4), pages 335-355, November.
    2. Moradi, Alexander, 2009. "Towards an Objective Account of Nutrition and Health in Colonial Kenya: A Study of Stature in African Army Recruits and Civilians, 1880–1980," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 719-754, September.
    3. Robert C. Allen & Jean-Pascal Bassino & Debin Ma & Christine Moll-Murata & Jan Luiten Van Zanden, 2011. "Wages, prices, and living standards in China, 1738–1925: in comparison with Europe, Japan, and India," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 64, pages 8-38, February.
    4. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1979_34n1_0025 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Frankema, Ewout & Waijenburg, Marlous Van, 2012. "Structural Impediments to African Growth? New Evidence from Real Wages in British Africa, 1880–1965," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 895-926, December.
    6. Roy, Tirthankar, 2012. "Natural Disasters and Indian History: Oxford India Short Introductions," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198075370.
    7. Sue Bowden & Blessing Chiripanhura & Paul Mosley, 2008. "Measuring and explaining poverty in six African countries: A long-period approach," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(8), pages 1049-1079.
    8. Frankema, Ewout, 2011. "Colonial taxation and government spending in British Africa, 1880-1940: Maximizing revenue or minimizing effort?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 136-149, January.
    9. repec:cai:poeine:pope_403_0455 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Frankema, Ewout, 2010. "Raising revenue in the British empire, 1870–1940: how ‘extractive’ were colonial taxes?," Journal of Global History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 447-477, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guinnane, Timothy W., 2023. "We Do Not Know the Population of Every Country in the World for the Past Two Thousand Years," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(3), pages 912-938, September.
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    5. Anthony Atkinson, 2015. "The Distribution of Top Incomes in Former British West Africa," Working Papers 201503, World Inequality Lab.
    6. Broadberry, Stephen & Gardner, Leigh, 2022. "Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1885–2008: Evidence from eight countries," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    7. Kostadis J. Papaioannou & Michiel de Haas, 2015. "Climate shocks, cash crops and resilience: Evidence from colonial tropical Africa," Working Papers 0076, Utrecht University, Centre for Global Economic History.
    8. Bolt, Jutta & Gardner, Leigh, 2020. "How Africans Shaped British Colonial Institutions: Evidence from Local Taxation," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1189-1223, December.
    9. Alvaredo, Facundo & Cogneau, Denis & Piketty, Thomas, 2021. "Income inequality under colonial rule. Evidence from French Algeria, Cameroon, Tunisia, and Vietnam and comparisons with British colonies 1920–1960," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
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    12. Ellen Hillbom & Jutta Bolt & Michiel de Haas & Federico Tadei, 2024. "Income inequality and export‐oriented commercialization in colonial Africa: Evidence from six countries," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 77(3), pages 975-1004, August.
    13. Graziella Bertocchi, 2016. "The Legacies of Slavery in and out of Africa," Department of Economics 0096, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    14. Remi Jedwab & Felix Meier zu Selhausen & Alexander Moradi, 2022. "The economics of missionary expansion: evidence from Africa and implications for development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 149-192, June.
    15. Martin Karlsson & Stefan Pichler, 2015. "Demographic consequences of HIV," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(4), pages 1097-1135, October.
    16. Aboagye, Prince Young & Bolt, Jutta, 2021. "Long-term trends in income inequality: Winners and losers of economic change in Ghana, 1891–1960," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    17. Ewout Frankema & Jeffrey Williamson & Pieter Woltjer, 2015. "An Economic Rationale for the African Scramble: The Commercial Transition and the Commodity Price Boom of 1845-1885," NBER Working Papers 21213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Bertocchi, Graziella & Dimico, Arcangelo, 2019. "The long-term determinants of female HIV infection in Africa: The slave trade, polygyny, and sexual behavior," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 90-105.
    19. Andersson, Jens & Lazuka, Volha, 2019. "Long-term drivers of taxation in francophone West Africa 1893–2010," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 294-313.
    20. Jerven, Morten, 2019. "African Economic Growth 1900-50: Historical National Accounts for British Colonial Africa," African Economic History Working Paper 50/2019, African Economic History Network.
    21. Frankema, Ewout & Papaioannou, Kostadis, 2017. "Withdrawn Paper," CEPR Discussion Papers 11795, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Alvaredo, Facundo & Cogneau, Denis & Piketty, Thomas, 2020. "Income inequality under Colonial Rule: Evidence from French Algeria, Cameroon, Tunisia, and Vietnam and comparisons with the Br," CEPR Discussion Papers 14969, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Andersson, Jens & Andersson, Martin, 2019. "Beyond Miracle and Malaise: Social Capability in Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal during the Development Era 1930-1980," Lund Papers in Economic History 202, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    24. Sullivan, Dylan & Hickel, Jason, 2023. "Capitalism and extreme poverty: a global analysis of real wages, human height, and mortality since the long 16th century," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117731, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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