IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/econpa/v42y2023i1p92-106.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Organising Thinking about Disinflation Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Eduardo Pol

Abstract

This paper offers a plain model to organise thinking about the disinflation policy. It exploits the insight that monetary and fiscal policy are intertwined. The model links inflationary expectations, monetary policy and fiscal policy, and contemplates a disinflation policy consisting of two plans, not necessarily connected: a monetary plan and a fiscal plan. The central question examined is which type of policy generates a lower policy interest rate – a monetary plan without fiscal cooperation or a monetary plan with fiscal austerity? The economic logic articulated by the model generates the following answer: the equilibrium policy rate set by the central bank can always be brought down by reducing the budget deficit. This qualitatively unambiguous prediction may be dependent on silent omissions, which are briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Pol, 2023. "Organising Thinking about Disinflation Policy," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 42(1), pages 92-106, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econpa:v:42:y:2023:i:1:p:92-106
    DOI: 10.1111/1759-3441.12375
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12375
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1759-3441.12375?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "Stopping moderate inflations: the methods of Poincaré and Thatcher," Working Papers 1, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    2. Robert S. Pindyck, 1976. "The Cost of Conflicting Objectives in Policy Formulation," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 2, pages 239-248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lui, Francis T, 1983. "Cagan's Hypothesis and the First Nationwide Inflation of Paper Money in World History," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(6), pages 1067-1074, December.
    4. Cachanosky, Nicolás & Ferrelli Mazza, Federico Julián, 2021. "Why did inflation targeting fail in Argentina?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 102-116.
    5. Wicker, Elmus R, 1986. "Terminating Hyperinflation in the Dismembered Habsburg Monarchy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 350-364, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marco Bassetto, 2009. "The Research Agenda: Marco Bassetto on the Quantitative Evaluation of Fiscal Policy Rules," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), April.
    2. Dimitris Mavridis & Pálma Mosberger, 2017. "Income Inequality and Incentives. The Quasi-Natural Experiment of Hungary 1914-2008," Working Papers halshs-02797438, HAL.
    3. Willem H. Buiter, 1984. "Comment on T. J. Sargent and N. Wallace: Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 42-60, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. John H. Cochrane, 2022. "Fiscal Histories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 125-146, Fall.
    5. David Kendrick, 1976. "Applications of Control Theory to Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 2, pages 171-190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Erceg, Christopher J. & Levin, Andrew T., 2003. "Imperfect credibility and inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 915-944, May.
    7. Fujiwara, Ippei & Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Ueda, Kozo, 2015. "Policy regime change against chronic deflation? Policy option under a long-term liquidity trap," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 59-81.
    8. S. Rao Aiyagari & R. Anton Braun & Zvi Eckstein, 1998. "Transaction Services, Inflation, and Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1274-1301, December.
    9. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Sovereign risk, credibility and the gold standard: 1870-1913 versus 1925-31," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 241-275, April.
    10. Emmanuel Carré, 2014. "The origins of inflation targeting regime: the science of central banking or the art of central bankers?," Cahiers d’économie politique / Papers in Political Economy, L'Harmattan, issue 66, pages 127-172.
    11. Heymann, Daniel, 1986. "Inflation and stabilization policies," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    12. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1984. "The causes of inflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-32.
    13. Vegh, Carlos, 1991. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," MPRA Paper 20175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Harold James, 2024. "Hyperinflation after the First World War in Central Europe: Causes, Remedies, Consequences," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 23(4), pages 54-68.
    15. Jack H. Beebe & John P. Judd, 1993. "The output-inflation trade-off in the United States: has it changed since the late 1970s?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 25-34.
    16. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614, Elsevier.
    18. Dennis Wesselbaum, 2022. "Cheap Talk in a New Keynesian Model," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(3), pages 661-691, September.
    19. George Selgin, 2003. "Adaptive Learning and the Transition to Fiat Money," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 147-165, January.
    20. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Rich, Robert W, 2001. "Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 416-427, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:econpa:v:42:y:2023:i:1:p:92-106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esausea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.