IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/devpol/v43y2025i2ne12829.html

Early transition markers, opportunities, and limitations that define pathways into the labour market from adolescence to adulthood in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Rossouw
  • Kathryn Grace Watt
  • Furzana Timol
  • Leslie L. Davidson
  • Chris Desmond

Abstract

Motivation The transition from adolescence to adulthood encompasses key social changes. NEET status (Not in Education, Employment or Training) during this period disrupts this transition and alters an adolescent's life course. This is of particular concern in South Africa, a middle‐income country with one of the world's highest rates of youth unemployment. Purpose The pathway to becoming NEET emerges over time by accumulating risks in early life and adolescence. Early‐life adversities can increase the probability of events associated with becoming NEET. We aim to identify early‐life and adolescent predictors of events associated with becoming NEET, as well as predictors of NEET status itself. Methods and approach We analyse four rounds of longitudinal data from a sample of 1,174 adolescents growing up in peri‐urban KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa. Using a socioecological life‐course model, we create two overlapping analytic cohorts and two NEET vulnerability indices to evaluate whether risks for vulnerability in schooling (early outcomes) are similar to those affecting post‐schooling education and labour‐market outcomes (later outcomes). We use a linear probability model to analyse the relationship between the vulnerability indices and the range of risk factors in the socioecological life‐course model. Findings A strong predictor of both NEET vulnerability indices includes reporting feeling hopeless about the future. Other significant predictors include behavioural factors (getting pregnant or impregnating someone during adolescence, and drinking alcohol before age 16), family structure (residing with one's biological mother in early adolescence was protective) and demographics (age). Policy implications By deepening our understanding of how individual and contextual characteristics shape the transition into productive adulthood through a life‐course approach, we can identify possible early intervention points lost once young people become NEET.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Rossouw & Kathryn Grace Watt & Furzana Timol & Leslie L. Davidson & Chris Desmond, 2025. "Early transition markers, opportunities, and limitations that define pathways into the labour market from adolescence to adulthood in South Africa," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 43(2), March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:devpol:v:43:y:2025:i:2:n:e12829
    DOI: 10.1111/dpr.12829
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.12829
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/dpr.12829?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ariane De Lannoy & Gibson Mudiriza, 2023. "Profile of young people not in employment, education or training (NEET) aged 15-24 years in South Africa: an annual update," SALDRU Working Papers 298, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    2. Kim Baldry & Lauren Graham & Ariane De Lannoy, 2019. "The agency and resilience of NEET youth and what we can do to support them. Evidence from a synthesis of qualitative research with young people in South Africa," SALDRU Working Papers 253, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    3. Chris Desmond & Janet Seeley & Candice Groenewald & Nothando Ngwenya & Kate Rich & Tony Barnett, 2019. "Interpreting social determinants: Emergent properties and adolescent risk behaviour," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(12), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Chris Desmond & Kathryn Watt & Sara Naicker & Jere Behrman & Linda Richter, 2024. "Girls' schooling is important but insufficient to promote equality for boys and girls in childhood and across the life course," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 42(1), January.
    5. Ariane De Lannoy & Gibson Mudiriza, 2019. "A profile of young NEETs: Unpacking the heterogeneous nature of young people not in employment, education or training in South Africa," SALDRU Working Papers 249, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    6. Kim Engle & Cecil Mlatsheni, 2017. "The extent of churn in the South African youth labour market: Evidence from NIDS 2008-2015," SALDRU Working Papers 201, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    7. Vimal Ranchhod & David Lam & Murray Leibbrandt & Leticia Marteleto, 2011. "Estimating the effect of adolescent fertility on educational attainment in Cape Town using a propensity score weighted regression," SALDRU Working Papers 59, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    8. Berzin, Stephanie Cosner, 2010. "Vulnerability in the transition to adulthood: Defining risk based on youth profiles," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 487-495, April.
    9. Martin Gustafsson, 2011. "The when and how of leaving school: The policy implications of new evidence on secondary schooling in South Africa," Working Papers 09/2011, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicola Branson & Clare Hofmeyr & David Lam, 2014. "Progress through school and the determinants of school dropout in South Africa," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 106-126, January.
    2. Leticia Marteleto & Molly Dondero, 2013. "Maternal age at first birth and adolescent education in Brazil," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(28), pages 793-820.
    3. Helena Ting & Martina Bozzola & Chiara Ravetti, 2024. "Tuberculosis and labour market participation: Evidence from South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 92(4), pages 444-474, December.
    4. Kakal, T., 2015. "A tale of two sisters : Investigating the socio-economic outcomes of teen childbearing in South Africa," ISS Working Papers - General Series 604, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    5. Wills, Gabrielle, 2016. "Principal leadership changes and their consequences for school performance in South Africa," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 108-124.
    6. Jacqueline Mosomi & Mrtin Wittenberg, 2020. "The labor market in South Africa, 2000–2017," World of Labour, LISER, pages 475-475, April.
    7. Herrera Catalina & E. Sahn David, 2017. "Working Paper 281 - Early Childbearing, School Attainment and Cognitive Skills," Working Paper Series 2398, African Development Bank.
    8. Adam Pain & Sanjaya Khatri & Kristina Marquardt & Dil Bahadur Khatri, 2025. "Dancing with Uncertainty in the Himalayas in Times of Multiple Crises," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 25(1), pages 45-63, January.
    9. Garman, E.C. & Avendano, Mauricio & Araya, Ricardo & Evans-Lacko, Sara & McDaid, David & Zimmerman, A. & Lund, C., 2022. "Understanding the complex relationship between multidimensional poverty and depressive symptoms among young South Africans: a cross-sectional study," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 116674, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Cansu Bahçeci & Senay Birecikli & Oznur & Eleftherios Giovanis, 2025. "The Causal Effect of 2012 Compulsory Education Law on NEET in Türkiye: A Regression Discontinuity Design," Working Papers 1788, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Aug 2025.
    11. Martin Gustafsson & Stephen Taylor, 2013. "Treating schools to a new administration. The impact of South Africa’s 2005 provincial boundary changes on school performance," Working Papers 28/2013, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    12. Nicola Branson & David Lam, 2017. "The impact of the no-fee school policy on enrolment and school performance: Evidence from NIDS Waves 1-3," SALDRU Working Papers 197, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    13. Heyman, Janna C. & White-Ryan, Linda & Kelly, Peggy & Farmer, G. Lawrence & Leaman, Tara Linh & Davis, Henry J., 2020. "Voices about foster care: The value of trust," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    14. Levent Şahin & Halis Yunus Ersöz & İbrahim Demir & Muhammed Erkam Kocakaya & Osman Akgül & Abdullah Miraç Bükey, 2023. "The Relationship between Cause and Effect Dimensions of Young People’s Being “Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET)” in Turkey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-19, October.
    15. Rocco Zizzamia, 2025. "Ignorance is bliss? Rejection and discouragement in on-the-job search," CSAE Working Paper Series 2025-06, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    16. Joseph M. Boden & Jackie Sanders & Robyn Munford & Linda Liebenberg, 2018. "The Same But Different? Applicability of a General Resilience Model to Understand a Population of Vulnerable Youth," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 11(1), pages 79-96, February.
    17. Eva O. Arceo-Gómez & Raymundo M. Campos-Vázquez, 2014. "Teenage Pregnancy in Mexico: Evolution and Consequences," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 51(1), pages 109-146, May.
    18. Joseph M. Boden & Jackie Sanders & Robyn Munford & Linda Liebenberg & Geraldine F. H. McLeod, 2016. "Paths to Positive Development: a Model of Outcomes in the New Zealand Youth Transitions Study," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 9(4), pages 889-911, December.
    19. Nomusa F. Mngoma & Oyedeji A. Ayonrinde, 2023. "Mental distress and substance use among rural Black South African youth who are not in employment, education or training (NEET)," International Journal of Social Psychiatry, , vol. 69(3), pages 532-542, May.
    20. Ham Andrés & Maldonado Darío & Guzmán-Gutiérrez Carlos Santiago, 2021. "Recent trends in the youth labor market in Colombia: Diagnosis and policy challenges," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Paradigm & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-62, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:devpol:v:43:y:2025:i:2:n:e12829. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/odioruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.