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A Structural Measurement of the Valuation Effect of China's External Assets: Method and Application

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  • Guowei Cai
  • Xiaowei Chen
  • Xun Wang

Abstract

Existing research on the measurement of the valuation effect mainly follows the residual method proposed by Lane and Milesi‐Ferretti (2001). This cannot be used to perform structural decomposition. We propose an aggregation approach rather than the residual method to measure structurally the investment flow and valuation effect of China's external assets. The results indicate that the valuation effect of China's external assets has been highly volatile and it was negative during the pandemic period. The structural decomposition shows that portfolio investment and direct investment made the main contributions to the valuation effect. The impact of exchange rates on the valuation effect has generally been higher than that of asset price in terms of direct investment and total external assets but the opposite has been true for portfolio investment. China's outward investments are currently more inclined to Asian countries and a few European countries but inflows to China still mainly come from developed countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Guowei Cai & Xiaowei Chen & Xun Wang, 2024. "A Structural Measurement of the Valuation Effect of China's External Assets: Method and Application," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 32(2), pages 97-124, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:32:y:2024:i:2:p:97-124
    DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12527
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philip R. Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 518-540, March.
    2. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "International Financial Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, August.
    3. Fei Nie & Jian Li & Xiaoli Etienne & Gucheng Li, 2023. "Impact of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Chinese Manufacturing Firms' Financialization and Servitization," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(2), pages 112-136, March.
    4. Bénétrix, Agustin S. & Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2015. "International currency exposures, valuation effects and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 98-109.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
    6. Luke Deer & Ligang Song, 2013. "International Financial Adjustment for China: A Financial Valuation Approach," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 21(1), pages 1-25, January.
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