IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/acctfi/v63y2023i3p3351-3386.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Detecting overproduction: Evidence from inventory write‐down

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Comiran
  • Subprasiri Siriviriyakul

Abstract

We use inventory write‐downs to differentiate opportunistic and non‐opportunistic overproduction measures. We posit that non‐opportunistic overproduction is positively associated with future write‐downs because overproduction generally leads to excess inventory, while opportunistic overproduction (to inflate earnings) is negatively associated with write‐downs because write‐downs decrease earnings. We find that change‐based proxies (deviations from past behaviour) are positively associated with the likelihood of future write‐downs, whereas residual‐based proxies (deviations from industry norms) are negatively associated with this likelihood, suggesting that the former (latter) primarily capture non‐opportunistic (opportunistic) overproduction. Our study highlights the importance of using appropriate overproduction measures for each research setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Comiran & Subprasiri Siriviriyakul, 2023. "Detecting overproduction: Evidence from inventory write‐down," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(3), pages 3351-3386, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:63:y:2023:i:3:p:3351-3386
    DOI: 10.1111/acfi.13038
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.13038
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/acfi.13038?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Mellado-Cid & Surendranath R. Jory & Thanh N. Ngo, 2019. "Options trades, short sales and real earnings management," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 400-427, June.
    2. Ahrum Choi & Eugenia Y. Lee & Sunyoung Park & Byungcherl Charlie Sohn, 2022. "The differential effect of accrual-based and real earnings management on audit fees: international evidence," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 254-290, April.
    3. David Burgstahler & Michael Eames, 2006. "Management of Earnings and Analysts' Forecasts to Achieve Zero and Small Positive Earnings Surprises," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5-6), pages 633-652.
    4. Galdi, Fernando Caio & Johnson, E. Scott, 2021. "Accounting for inventory costs and real earnings management behavior," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    5. James Jiambalvo & Eric Noreen & Terry Shevlin, 1997. "Incremental Information Content of the Change in the Percent of Production Added to Inventory," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(1), pages 69-97, March.
    6. Pappas, Kostas & Walsh, Eamonn & Xu, Alice Liang, 2019. "Real earnings management and loan contract terms," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 373-401.
    7. Mark C. Anderson & Rajiv D. Banker & Surya N. Janakiraman, 2003. "Are Selling, General, and Administrative Costs “Sticky”?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 47-63, March.
    8. Jeong‐Bon Kim & Jeff J. Wang & Eliza Xia Zhang, 2021. "Does real earnings smoothing reduce investors’ perceived risk?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(9-10), pages 1560-1595, October.
    9. Inder K. Khurana & Raynolde Pereira & Eliza (Xia) Zhang, 2018. "Is Real Earnings Smoothing Harmful? Evidence from Firm‐Specific Stock Price Crash Risk," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 558-587, March.
    10. Benjamin P. Commerford & Dana R. Hermanson & Richard W. Houston & Michael F. Peters, 2019. "Auditor Sensitivity to Real Earnings Management: The Importance of Ambiguity and Earnings Context," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 1055-1076, June.
    11. Taylor, Gary K. & Xu, Randall Zhaohui, 2010. "Consequences of real earnings management on subsequent operating performance," Research in Accounting Regulation, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 128-132.
    12. Katherine A. Gunny, 2010. "The Relation Between Earnings Management Using Real Activities Manipulation and Future Performance: Evidence from Meeting Earnings Benchmarks," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 855-888, September.
    13. Ahsan Habib & Dinithi Ranasinghe & Julia Yonghua Wu & Pallab Kumar Biswas & Fawad Ahmad, 2022. "Real earnings management: A review of the international literature," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(4), pages 4279-4344, December.
    14. Lev, B & Thiagarajan, Sr, 1993. "Fundamental Information Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 190-215.
    15. Zahra H. Oskouei & Zahra Heidary Sureshjani, 2021. "Studying the relationship between managerial ability and real earnings management in economic and financial crisis conditions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4574-4589, July.
    16. Alexander Brüggen & Ranjani Krishnan & Karen L Sedatole, 2011. "Drivers and Consequences of Short†Term Production Decisions: Evidence from the Auto Industry," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(1), pages 83-123, March.
    17. Bill Francis & Iftekhar Hasan & Lingxiang Li, 2016. "Abnormal real operations, real earnings management, and subsequent crashes in stock prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 217-260, February.
    18. Tsung-Kang Chen & Yijie Tseng & Yu-Ting Hsieh, 2015. "Real Earnings Management Uncertainty and Corporate Credit Risk," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 413-440, September.
    19. Chad R. Larson & Danko Turcic & Fuqiang Zhang, 2015. "An Empirical Investigation of Dynamic Ordering Policies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(9), pages 2118-2138, September.
    20. Roychowdhury, Sugata, 2006. "Earnings management through real activities manipulation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 335-370, December.
    21. Wei Chen & Paul Hribar & Samuel Melessa, 2018. "Incorrect Inferences When Using Residuals as Dependent Variables," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 751-796, June.
    22. Bill Francis & Iftekhar Hasan & Lingxiang Li, 2016. "Abnormal real operations, real earnings management, and subsequent crashes in stock prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 217-260, February.
    23. Mahendra Gupta & Mikhail Pevzner & Chandra Seethamraju, 2010. "The Implications of Absorption Cost Accounting and Production Decisions for Future Firm Performance and Valuation," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 889-922, September.
    24. Jiang, Haiyan & Habib, Ahsan & Wang, Snow, 2018. "Real Earnings Management, Institutional Environment, and Future Operating Performance: An International Study," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 33-53.
    25. Demetris Christodoulou & Le Ma & Andrey Vasnev, 2018. "Inference†in†residuals as an Estimation Method for Earnings Management," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 54(2), pages 154-180, June.
    26. Ahrum Choi & Jong‐Hag Choi & Byungcherl Charlie Sohn, 2018. "The Joint Effect of Audit Quality and Legal Regimes on the Use of Real Earnings Management: International Evidence," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 2225-2257, December.
    27. Thomas A. Gilliam, 2021. "Detecting Real Activities Manipulation: Beyond Performance Matching," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 57(4), pages 619-653, December.
    28. David Burgstahler & Michael Eames, 2006. "Management of Earnings and Analysts' Forecasts to Achieve Zero and Small Positive Earnings Surprises," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5‐6), pages 633-652, June.
    29. Max Hewitt & Frank D. Hodge & Jamie H. Pratt, 2020. "Do Shareholders Assess Managers' Use of Accruals to Manage Earnings as a Negative Signal of Trustworthiness Even When its Outcome Serves Shareholders' Interests?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 2058-2086, December.
    30. Anup Srivastava, 2019. "Improving the measures of real earnings management," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 1277-1316, December.
    31. Daniel Cohen & Shailendra Pandit & Charles E. Wasley & Tzachi Zach, 2020. "Measuring Real Activity Management†," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 1172-1198, June.
    32. Sergey Rumyantsev & Serguei Netessine, 2007. "What Can Be Learned from Classical Inventory Models? A Cross-Industry Exploratory Investigation," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 409-429, April.
    33. Ji Hye Kim & Sang Ho Lee & Yong Keun Yoo, 2020. "Real earnings management and the cost of debt capital: international evidence," Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 151-172, March.
    34. Lin, Yi-Mien & Shen, Cheng-An, 2015. "Family firms' credit rating, idiosyncratic risk, and earnings management," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 872-877.
    35. Allen, Eric J. & Larson, Chad R. & Sloan, Richard G., 2013. "Accrual reversals, earnings and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 113-129.
    36. Kothari, S.P. & Leone, Andrew J. & Wasley, Charles E., 2005. "Performance matched discretionary accrual measures," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 163-197, February.
    37. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
    38. Iny Hwang & Taejin Jung & Woo‐Jong Lee & Daniel G. Yang, 2021. "Asymmetric Inventory Management and the Direction of Sales Changes†," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 676-706, March.
    39. Al-Shattarat, Basiem & Hussainey, Khaled & Al-Shattarat, Wasim, 2022. "The impact of abnormal real earnings management to meet earnings benchmarks on future operating performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    40. Francis, J & Hanna, JD & Vincent, L, 1996. "Causes and effects of discretionary asset write-offs," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34, pages 117-134.
    41. Burgstahler, David & Dichev, Ilia, 1997. "Earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 99-126, December.
    42. Cohen, Daniel A. & Zarowin, Paul, 2010. "Accrual-based and real earnings management activities around seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 2-19, May.
    43. Scott D. Dyreng & Stephen A. Hillegeist & Fernando Penalva, 2022. "Earnings Management to Avoid Debt Covenant Violations and Future Performance," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 311-343, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahsan Habib & Dinithi Ranasinghe & Julia Yonghua Wu & Pallab Kumar Biswas & Fawad Ahmad, 2022. "Real earnings management: A review of the international literature," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(4), pages 4279-4344, December.
    2. Eiler, Lisa A. & Filzen, Joshua J. & Jackson, Mark & Tama-Sweet, Isho, 2021. "Real earnings management and the properties of analysts' forecasts," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    3. Galdi, Fernando Caio & Johnson, E. Scott, 2021. "Accounting for inventory costs and real earnings management behavior," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Pallab Kumar Biswas & Dinithi Ranasinghe & Eric K. M. Tan, 2023. "Impact of product market competition on real activity manipulation: Moderating role of managerial ability," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 247-275, March.
    5. Li, Chihua & Tseng, Yijie & Chen, Tsung-Kang, 2016. "Top management team expertise and corporate real earnings management activities," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 117-132.
    6. Chen, Ching-Lung & Weng, Pei-Yu & Fan, Hung-Shu, 2023. "Exploring the role of excess control rights on real earnings management in family-controlled firms," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    7. Thomas A. Gilliam, 2021. "Detecting Real Activities Manipulation: Beyond Performance Matching," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 57(4), pages 619-653, December.
    8. Al Mabsali, Yousuf Khamis & Hayward, Robert & Eliwa, Yasser, 2021. "Managerial tools used to meet or beat analyst forecasts: Evidence from the UK," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    9. Al-Shattarat, Basiem & Hussainey, Khaled & Al-Shattarat, Wasim, 2022. "The impact of abnormal real earnings management to meet earnings benchmarks on future operating performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Min Liu, 2020. "Real and accrual-based earnings management in the pre- and post- engagement partner signature requirement periods in the United Kingdom," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1133-1161, April.
    11. Berrill, Jenny & Campa, Domenico & O'Hagan-Luff, Martha, 2021. "Firm diversification and earnings management strategies: European evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. El Diri, Malek & Lambrinoudakis, Costas & Alhadab, Mohammad, 2020. "Corporate governance and earnings management in concentrated markets," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 291-306.
    13. Chang, Chu-Hsuan & Lin, Hsiou-Wei William, 2018. "Does there prevail momentum in earnings management for seasoned equity offering firms?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 111-129.
    14. Nguyet T. M. Nguyen & Abdullah Iqbal & Radha K. Shiwakoti, 2022. "The context of earnings management and its ability to predict future stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 123-169, July.
    15. Theodore E. Christensen & Adrienna Huffman & Melissa F. Lewis‐Western & Rachel Scott, 2022. "Accruals earnings management proxies: Prudent business decisions or earnings manipulation?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3-4), pages 536-587, March.
    16. Lin, Fengyi & Lin, Sheng-Wei & Fang, Wen-Chang, 2020. "How CEO narcissism affects earnings management behaviors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    17. Julia Sawicki & Keshab Shrestha, 2014. "Misvaluation and Insider Trading Incentives for Accrual-based and Real Earnings Management," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(7-8), pages 926-949, September.
    18. Zhang, Yiyang & Perols, Johan & Robinson, Dahlia & Smith, Thomas, 2018. "Earnings management strategies to maintain a string of meeting or beating analyst expectations," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 46-55.
    19. Campa, Domenico, 2019. "Earnings management strategies during financial difficulties: A comparison between listed and unlisted French companies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 457-471.
    20. Karan Gandhi, 2020. "Real earnings management practices for meeting earnings benchmarks: Indian evidence," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 47(3), pages 265-291, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:63:y:2023:i:3:p:3351-3386. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaanzea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.