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Analysis of the Distribution of Exchange-Rates near the 2008 Global Financial Crisis

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  • Doobae Jun
  • Jinsu Kim
  • Gwangil Kim

Abstract

We search for indicators that might have predicted the 2008 financial crisis, by analyzing the standardized normalized distribution of exchange-rates. We find that this distribution was close to normal during the crisis, but had an exceptionally high kurtosis in the second quarter of 2006, indicating the beginning of long-term USD weakness. Somewhat nearer to the crisis, we can also see suggestive fluctuations in some exchange-rates. Further, we analyze stock-market indices across the crisis, and show that they responded more sensitively than exchange-rates, and that the distribution of stock-market indices also has an exceptional value of kurtosis at Q2 2006, suggesting that the kurtosis of the distribution of exchange-rates might have provided as an early indicator of the crisis.

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  • Doobae Jun & Jinsu Kim & Gwangil Kim, 2020. "Analysis of the Distribution of Exchange-Rates near the 2008 Global Financial Crisis," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Richtmann Publishing Ltd, vol. 9, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bjz:ajisjr:1926
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.36941/ajis-2020-0073
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    1. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross‐Country Causes And Consequences Of The 2008 Crisis: International Linkages And American Exposure," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 340-363, August.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    3. Philip R Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2011. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 77-110, April.
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
    5. Jun, Doobae & Ahn, Changmo & Kim, Gwangil, 2017. "Analysis of the global financial crisis using statistical moments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 47-52.
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