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Use Of Quantitative Ratios From The System Of National Accounts In Predicting Price Bubbles On The Housing Market

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  • Ivana Jovanović

Abstract

One of the main causes of the economic and sovereign debt crisis in 2010 – 2012 in some European countries like the United Kingdom, Spain and Ireland was the bursting of the residential market price bubble that was formed in the previous period. In this paper, a specific methodology of indicator analysis of the System of National Accounts and other data has been analyzed if it can help identify and prevent forming of some possible future price bubbles at the residential market, and therefore negative macroeconomic consequences of their bursting. Comparative indicator analysis and critical values suggest measurements of excessive construction activity that led to forming of price bubbles on the residential market. Econometric analysis has shown that it is not possible to establish critical values as variable of interest is not statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivana Jovanović, 2021. "Use Of Quantitative Ratios From The System Of National Accounts In Predicting Price Bubbles On The Housing Market," Ekonomske ideje i praksa, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, issue 43, pages 45-54, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:beo:ekidpr:y:2021:i:43:p:45-54
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    File URL: https://www.ekof.bg.ac.rs/journals/eip/43/04.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    2. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    national accounts; residential market price bubble; indicator analysis; binary variable models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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