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What do we know, what we don't and what we cannot know so far about COVID-19: The case of Russia

Author

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  • Alexis Belianin

    (Higher School of Economics and IMEMO, Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • Alexander Shivarov

    (International College of Economics and Finance, Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

The paper surveys the Russian experience of COVID-19 pandemia over the two waves: April-May and October-December 2020. We discuss the implementation of the various policy measures, including hospital capacity buidling, quarantine restrictions and behavioral nudging, and compare their efficiency against social costs. The analysis of COVID-19 dynamics is much restricted by the quality of the available data, which remains poor for a number of medical, statistical and political reasons. We argue that exogenous sources, such as the number of internet search queries related to COVID and excess mortality over the previous year, provide a more impartial picture of the pandemia. Using panel data regression analysis, we find that both official COVID-19 casualties and excess mortality are correlated with internet queries and population density, but lower excess mortality only is also explained by the exogenous characteristics of healthcare system, such as the number of ambulance staff and mean duration of hospital treatment. We conclude that better information and more diversified health policies are needed to fight the pandemia and its consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexis Belianin & Alexander Shivarov, 2020. "What do we know, what we don't and what we cannot know so far about COVID-19: The case of Russia," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 4(S3), pages 77-86, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:beh:jbepv1:v:4:y:2020:i:s3:p:77-86
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Farboodi, Maryam & Jarosch, Gregor & Shimer, Robert, 2021. "Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    2. Christopher Avery & William Bossert & Adam Clark & Glenn Ellison & Sara Fisher Ellison, 2020. "Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists," NBER Working Papers 27007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Jones, Charles I., 2022. "Estimating and simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for many countries, states, and cities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Christopher Avery & William Bossert & Adam Thomas Clark & Glenn Ellison & Sara Ellison, 2020. "Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists," CESifo Working Paper Series 8293, CESifo.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michelle Baddeley, 2020. "COVID-19 2020: A year of living dangerously," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 4(S3), pages 5-9, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; excess mortality; medical statistics; internet queries; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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