IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bde/journl/y2019i12daan34.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The household saving rate in Spain between 2007 and 2016: decomposition by population group and possible determinants

Author

Listed:
  • Brindusa Anghel
  • Cristina Barceló
  • Ernesto Villanueva

Abstract

The article summarises the findings obtained in the estimation of an economic crisis early warning model for the euro area countries. These findings show that monitoring five variables that may indicate the emergence of macro-financial imbalances – current account balance, unit labour costs relative to the rest of the euro area, household indebtedness, corporate indebtedness and sovereign risk premium – helps facilitate the early detection of downturns in the euro area countries. As expected, the model points to a widespread euro area-wide increase in the probability of a decline in activity towards the middle of the last decade, just before the start of the Great Recession. Compared with the core euro area economies, the increase in crisis probability was much more pronounced in the periphery countries, driven by a worsening of the current account balance, growing private sector indebtedness and deteriorating competitiveness. In several of these economies, the probability of downturn predicted by the model heightened in 2011-2012, coinciding with the successive sovereign debt crisis episodes. Since then the probabilities of downturn have moderated substantially and are now low in most countries, albeit in some cases still above those observed at the turn of the century.

Suggested Citation

  • Brindusa Anghel & Cristina Barceló & Ernesto Villanueva, 2019. "The household saving rate in Spain between 2007 and 2016: decomposition by population group and possible determinants," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue DEC.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:journl:y:2019:i:12:d:aa:n:34
    Note: Analytical Articles
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/InformesBoletinesRevistas/ArticulosAnaliticos/19/T4/descargar/Files/be1904-art34e.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Reggio, Iliana, 2015. "Consumption in the shadow of unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 39-54.
    2. Barceló, Cristina & Villanueva, Ernesto, 2016. "The response of household wealth to the risk of job loss: Evidence from differences in severance payments," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 35-54.
    3. Richard Blundell & Howard Reed & Thomas M. Stoker, 2003. "Interpreting Aggregate Wage Growth: The Role of Labor Market Participation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1114-1131, September.
    4. Jan De Loecker & Jan Eeckhout & Gabriel Unger, 2020. "The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications [“Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 135(2), pages 561-644.
    5. repec:bde:journl:v:09:y:2013:p:10 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Brindusa Anghel & Henrique Basso & Olympia Bover & José María Casado & Laura Hospido & Mario Izquierdo & Ivan A. Kataryniuk & Aitor Lacuesta & José Manuel Montero & Elena Vozmediano, 2018. "Income, consumption and wealth inequality in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 351-387, November.
    7. Alba Lugilde & Roberto Bande & Dolores Riveiro, 2018. "Precautionary saving in Spain during the great recession: evidence from a panel of uncertainty indicators," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 1151-1179, December.
    8. Raj Chetty & Adam Szeidl, 2007. "Consumption Commitments and Risk Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(2), pages 831-877.
    9. Ángel Estrada & Mario Izquierdo & Aitor Lacuesta, 2009. "The functioning of the labour market and unemployment growth in Spain," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue JUL, pages 103-121, July.
    10. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Agar Brugiavini, 2001. "Risk Pooling, Precautionary Saving and Consumption Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(4), pages 757-779.
    11. Marta Martínez Matute & Alberto Urtasun, 2017. "The recovery of private consumption in Spain by product type and household," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue JUN.
    12. Óscar Arce & Elvira Prades & Alberto Urtasun, 2013. "Changes in household saving and consumption in Spain during the crisis," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue SEP, pages 27-35, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brindusa Anghel & Cristina Barceló & Ernesto Villanueva, 2023. "The growth in permanent contracts and its potential impact on spending," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2023/Q1.
    2. Lugilde, Alba, 2018. "Does income uncertainty affect Spanish household consumption?," MPRA Paper 87110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Tran Nguyen Van, 2022. "Understanding Household Consumption Behaviour: What do we Learn from a Developing Country?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(4), pages 801-858, October.
    4. Meghir, Costas & Pistaferri, Luigi, 2011. "Earnings, Consumption and Life Cycle Choices," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 9, pages 773-854, Elsevier.
    5. García-Perea, Pilar & Lacuesta, Aitor & Roldan-Blanco, Pau, 2021. "Markups and cost structure: Small Spanish firms during the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 137-158.
    6. Lugilde, Alba & Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2017. "Precautionary Saving: a review of the theory and the evidence," MPRA Paper 77511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Reggio, Iliana, 2016. "Optimal unemployment insurance: Consumption versus expenditure," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 81-89.
    8. Barceló, Cristina & Villanueva, Ernesto, 2016. "The response of household wealth to the risk of job loss: Evidence from differences in severance payments," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 35-54.
    9. Effrosyni Adamopoulou & Ezgi Kaya, 2020. "Not just a work permit: EU citizenship and the consumption behaviour of documented and undocumented immigrants," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1552-1598, November.
    10. Selçuk Bedük, 2023. "Insured Privately? Wealth Stratification of Job Loss in the UK," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 11(1), pages 135-147.
    11. Nathaniel Hendren, 2017. "Knowledge of Future Job Loss and Implications for Unemployment Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1778-1823, July.
    12. Ran Sun Lyng & Jie Zhou, 2019. "Household Portfolio Choice Before and After a House Purchase," Economics Working Papers 2019-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    13. Ensar Yılmaz & Zeynep Kaplan, 2022. "Heterogeneity of market power: firm-level evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 1207-1228, May.
    14. Marcela Ibanez & Sebastian O. Schneider, 2023. "Income Risk, Precautionary Saving, and Loss Aversion – An Empirical Test," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2023_06, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    15. Patrick Mellacher, 2021. "Growth, Inequality and Declining Business Dynamism in a Unified Schumpeter Mark I + II Model," Papers 2111.09407, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    16. Kuosmanen, Natalia & Valmari, Nelli, 2023. "Renewal of Companies Through Product Switching," ETLA Working Papers 104, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    17. Luigi Guiso, 2015. "A Test of Narrow Framing and its Origin," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 1(1), pages 61-100, March.
    18. Khorunzhina, Natalia, 2013. "Structural estimation of stock market participation costs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2928-2942.
    19. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Xuan Wang, 2023. "Support for small businesses amid COVID‐19," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(358), pages 612-652, April.
    20. Lee, Jeong-Joon & Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2007. "The degree of precautionary saving: A reexamination," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 196-201, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    early warning indicators; vulnerabilities; economic crisis forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:journl:y:2019:i:12:d:aa:n:34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ángel Rodríguez. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdegves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.