IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bcp/journl/v9y2025issue-6p4164-4175.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Test of the Monetary Theory of Inflation: An Experiment with Nigerian Data

Author

Listed:
  • Morison Oghenemine Okpada

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of the Social Sciences Delta State University, Abraka, Delta State, Nigeria)

  • Enoh Hilda Olele

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of the Social Sciences Delta State University, Abraka, Delta State, Nigeria)

Abstract

The study empirically investigated the monetary theory of inflation using Nigerian data from 1980 to 2022. Annual data on the inflation rate, monetary policy rate, exchange rate, interest rate, and money supply were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the World Development Indicators (WDI). The study regressed inflation rate as the dependent variable on the monetary policy rate, exchange rate, interest rate and money supply as the independent variables using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The findings revealed that monetary policy rate, exchange rate, interest rate and money supply (Monetary Policy) were not statistically significant in influencing inflation in Nigeria. The study found that the first inflation lag was statistically significant at the one per cent level. The finding implies that inflation expectations cause inflation in Nigeria. The study recommends that the Nigerian government should formulate and implement other economic policies along with the monetary policy to control prices to reduce inflation in Nigeria

Suggested Citation

  • Morison Oghenemine Okpada & Enoh Hilda Olele, 2025. "A Test of the Monetary Theory of Inflation: An Experiment with Nigerian Data," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 9(6), pages 4164-4175, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcp:journl:v:9:y:2025:issue-6:p:4164-4175
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/Digital-Library/volume-9-issue-6/4164-4175.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/articles/a-test-of-the-monetary-theory-of-inflation-an-experiment-with-nigerian-data/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Efayena, Obukohwo Oba & Olele, Hilda Enoh, 2020. "A Validation of the Phillips Curve Hypothesis in Nigeria: A Quarterly Data-Based Approach," MPRA Paper 98804, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Okey O. Ovat & Rimamtanung Nyiputen Ishaku & Malachy Ashywel Ugbaka & Eugene Okoi Ifere, 2022. "Monetary Policy Rate and Economic Growth in Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 53-59, May.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Claudiu Tiberiu ALBULESCU & Dominique Pepin, 2018. "Monetary Integration, Money-Demand Stability, and the Role of Monetary Overhang in Forecasting Inflation in CEE Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 33(4), pages 841-879.
    2. Wolfgang Keller & Carol H. Shiue & Xin Wang, 2020. "Capital markets and grain prices: assessing the storage cost approach," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 367-396, May.
    3. Serdar Ongan, Ismet Gocer, Ayse Ongan, 2022. "Revisiting the quantity theory of money in Euro Area: the case of Greece," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 19(1), pages 63-77, June.
    4. Fliers, Philip T. & Colvin, Christopher L., 2022. "Going Dutch: monetary policy in the Netherlands during the interwar gold standard, 1925–1936," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 121-151, August.
    5. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Dominique Pépin, 2018. "Money demand stability, monetary overhang and inflation forecast in the CEE countries," Working Papers hal-01720319, HAL.
    6. Srinivasan Palamalai & Kalaivani Mariappan & Christopher Devakumar, 2014. "On the Temporal Causal Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables," SAGE Open, , vol. 4(1), pages 21582440145, February.
    7. Siddharth Jain & Partha Gangopadhyay, 2020. "Impacts of Endogenous Sunk-Cost Investment on the Islamic Banking Industry: A Historical Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-23, May.
    8. Jalil, Abdul & Feridun, Mete & Ma, Ying, 2010. "Finance-growth nexus in China revisited: New evidence from principal components and ARDL bounds tests," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 189-195, April.
    9. Clement Moyo & Hlalefang Khobai & Nwabisa Kolisi & Zizipho Mbeki, 2018. "Financial develpoment and economic growth in Brazil: A non-linear ARDL approach," Working Papers 1811, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Mar 2018.
    10. O. Evans, 2019. "Money, Inflation and Output in Nigeria and South Africa: Could Friedman and Schwartz Be Right?," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 392-406, July.
    11. Akhand Hossain, 2012. "Modelling of narrow money demand in Australia: an ARDL cointegration approach, 1970–2009," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 767-790, June.
    12. Serdar Ongan, Ismet Gocer, Ayse Ongan, 2022. "Revisiting the quantity theory of money in Euro Area: the case of Greece," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 19(1), pages 63-77, June.
    13. Akinola Ezekiel Morakinyo & Mabutho Sibanda, 2016. "Non-Performing Loans and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Dynamic Analysis," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(4), pages 61-81, October-D.
    14. Pan, Lei & Mishra, Vinod, 2018. "Stock market development and economic growth: Empirical evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 661-673.
    15. Ferda Halicioglu, 2007. "The Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus for Turkey," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2007_06, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    16. Samuel Tolasa & Sisay Tolla Whakeshum & Negese Tamirat Mulatu, 2022. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Inflation in Ethiopia: ARDL Approach to Cointegration," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 96-120.
    17. Maximilian Grimm & Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability," NBER Working Papers 30958, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Karasoy, Alper, 2022. "Is innovative technology a solution to Japan's long-run energy insecurity? Dynamic evidence from the linear and nonlinear methods," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    19. repec:afa:wpaper:aesriwp06 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Flavio Vilela Vieira & Cleomar Gomes Da Silva, 2018. "Brics Export Performance: An Ardl Bounds Testing Empirical Investigation," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 101, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    21. Zhang, Junjie & Yu, Shiwei & Hu, Yundie & Hu, Xing & Zhang, Wenqing, 2025. "Impact of China's renewable energy product exports on host countries' energy transition R&D: The role of population aging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcp:journl:v:9:y:2025:issue-6:p:4164-4175. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr. Pawan Verma (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.