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Crude Oil, Palm Oil Stock and Prices: How They Link

Author

Listed:
  • Fatimah Mohamed Arshad

    () (Institute of Agricultural and Food Policy Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia, MALAYSIA)

  • Amna Awad Abdel Hameed

    () (Institute of Agricultural and Food Policy Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia, MALAYSIA)

Abstract

This paper reviews the nature of links or relationships between crude, palm oil prices and stocks and its short term implications on the palm oil price trend in 2013. An econometric method is used to empirically forecast the palm oil price movements in the year 2013 using monthly historical data over the period of January 2002 to December 2012. A single equation model using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) procedure was estimated to achieve the stated objective. The results provide a strong evidence of long-run equilibrium relation between crude palm oil price, its stock level and the crude oil prices. The study also uses the findings to provide projections for the palm oil prices during 2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatimah Mohamed Arshad & Amna Awad Abdel Hameed, 2013. "Crude Oil, Palm Oil Stock and Prices: How They Link," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 3, pages 48-57, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bap:journl:130304
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bapress.ca/ref/v3-3/1923-7529-2013-03-48-10.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", pages 106-135.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", pages 106-135.
    4. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil; Palm oil prices; Palm oil stock; Causality; ARDL;

    JEL classification:

    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q27 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Issues in International Trade
    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other

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