Crude Oil, Palm Oil Stock and Prices: How They Link
This paper reviews the nature of links or relationships between crude, palm oil prices and stocks and its short term implications on the palm oil price trend in 2013. An econometric method is used to empirically forecast the palm oil price movements in the year 2013 using monthly historical data over the period of January 2002 to December 2012. A single equation model using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) procedure was estimated to achieve the stated objective. The results provide a strong evidence of long-run equilibrium relation between crude palm oil price, its stock level and the crude oil prices. The study also uses the findings to provide projections for the palm oil prices during 2013.
Volume (Year): 3 (2013)
Issue (Month): (August)
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- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
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