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Taylor Rule Revisited: from an Econometric Point of View

Author

Listed:
  • Claudia Kurz

    () (University of Applied Sciences Mainz, Germany)

  • Jeong-Ryeol Kurz-Kim

    () (Deutsche Bundesbank, Germany)

Abstract

Based on a more realistic assumption, we modify the Taylor regression. The modified Taylor regression gives an explanation of why the (standard) Taylor regression is spurious (in the econometric sense, i.e. no stable relationship among the variables of interest) and, at the same time, a solution as to how central bank monetary policy can still be described by the Taylor rule. An empirical example using euro-area data confirms the compatibility of our modification with empirical data.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudia Kurz & Jeong-Ryeol Kurz-Kim, 2011. "Taylor Rule Revisited: from an Econometric Point of View," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 46-51, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bap:journl:110303
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2003. "Interest rate reaction functions and the Taylor rule in the euro area," Working Paper Series 258, European Central Bank.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    3. repec:bla:restud:v:57:y:1990:i:1:p:99-125 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    5. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    6. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    8. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    10. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Efficient estimation and testing of cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 87-121.
    11. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001. "An empirical comparison of Bundesbank and ECB monetary policy rules," International Finance Discussion Papers 705, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taylor rule; Monetary policy; Inflation; Output gap; Cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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