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How long will today's new adolescent smoker be addicted to cigarettes?

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  • Pierce, J.P.
  • Gilpin, E.

Abstract

This study estimated the expected smoking duration for young smokers who have started recently. Data from National Health Interview Surveys were combined to model the ages at which smoking prevalence will decline to various percentages of the peak smoking prevalence for each successive birth cohort. Smoking-cessation ages were then estimated for the males and females born from 1975 through 1979. The median cessation age for those in this cohort who start smoking as adolescents is expected to be 33 years for males and 37 years for females. Thus, 50% of these adolescent males may smoke for at least 16 years and 50% of these adolescent females may smoke for at least 20 years, based on a median age of initiation of 16 to 17 years. Despite the decline in the median age of US smokers who quit, these data predict that smoking will be a long-term addiction for many adolescents who start now.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierce, J.P. & Gilpin, E., 1996. "How long will today's new adolescent smoker be addicted to cigarettes?," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 86(2), pages 253-256.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:1996:86:2:253-256_7
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    Cited by:

    1. John P. Pierce & Todd P. Gilmer & Lora Lee & Elizabeth A. Gilpin & Joy de Beyer & Karen Messer, 2005. "Tobacco industry price‐subsidizing promotions may overcome the downward pressure of higher prices on initiation of regular smoking," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(10), pages 1061-1071, October.
    2. McVicar, Duncan, 2011. "Estimates of peer effects in adolescent smoking across twenty six European Countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 73(8), pages 1186-1193.
    3. Ahmad, Sajjad & Billimek, John, 2007. "Limiting youth access to tobacco: Comparing the long-term health impacts of increasing cigarette excise taxes and raising the legal smoking age to 21 in the United States," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 378-391, March.
    4. Sajjad Ahmad, 2005. "The Cost-Effectiveness of Raising the Legal Smoking Age in California," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 25(3), pages 330-340, May.
    5. Ahmad, Sajjad, 2005. "Closing the youth access gap: The projected health benefits and cost savings of a national policy to raise the legal smoking age to 21 in the United States," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 74-84, December.
    6. Grignon, Michel, 2009. "An empirical investigation of heterogeneity in time preferences and smoking behaviors," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 739-751, October.
    7. Joseph R. Baker & John K. Yardley & Kerri McCaul, 2001. "Characteristics of Responding-, Nonresponding- and Refusing-Parents in an Adolescent Lifestyle Choice Study," Evaluation Review, , vol. 25(6), pages 605-618, December.
    8. Ren, Yanjun & Castro Campos, Bente & Loy, Jens-Peter & Wang, Xiaobing, 2020. "Start Smoking Earlier, Smoke More: Does Education Matter?," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304237, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Glied, Sherry, 2002. "Youth tobacco control: reconciling theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 117-135, January.

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