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The Return of Selective Young Adult Migration: Post-Brexit Reversal of Poland’s EU Accession Migration Trends

Author

Listed:
  • Izabela Grabowska
  • Olga Czeranowska
  • Iga Ewa Wermińska-Wiśnicka

Abstract

This article explores how Brexit has reversed migration trends shaped by Poland’s 2004 EU accession, focusing on young adults aged 19–34. Using data from the Polish Labour Force Survey (2015–2019) and the Migrant Selectivity Index (MSI), it traces shifts in the socio-demographic profiles of Polish migrants. Key findings include a masculinisation of migration flows, a decline in tertiary-educated migrants, and growing mobility among individuals with intermediate education from rural areas—patterns resembling pre-accession dynamics. These changes reflect labour market realignments, with Germany surpassing the UK as the top destination. The study argues that Brexit not only disrupted post-accession migration but reactivated older selectivity mechanisms, reshaping human capital flows within the EU. By quantifying selectivity, it offers new insights into how geopolitical shifts affect labour mobility, regional development, and transnational skill distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Izabela Grabowska & Olga Czeranowska & Iga Ewa Wermińska-Wiśnicka, 2026. "The Return of Selective Young Adult Migration: Post-Brexit Reversal of Poland’s EU Accession Migration Trends," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 1, pages 45-62.
    • Handle: RePEc:aoq:ekonom:y:2026:i:1:p:45-62
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Kaczmarczyk, Pawel & Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2015. "Winners and Losers among Skilled Migrants: The Case of Post-Accession Polish Migrants to the UK," IZA Discussion Papers 9057, IZA Network @ LISER.
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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J19 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Other
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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