IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ahs/journl/v10y2025i2p619-635.html

The Mutual Relationship between Financial Inclusion and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Upper-Middle-Income Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Hakan Yıldırım
  • Tuba Özkan
  • Anıl Lögün
  • Mesut Doğan

Abstract

Enhancing financial inclusion is crucial for achieving global objectives such as sustainable growth, improved societal welfare, and poverty reduction. Due to its importance, financial inclusion has recently become a key policy issue and a widely studied topic. This study investigates the relationship between financial inclusion and monetary policy in upper-middle-income countries using the Two-Step System GMM and Panel Granger Causality methods. The findings reveal a bidirectional negative relationship between inflation and financial inclusion. Inflation negatively affects financial inclusion, while an increase in financial inclusion has a reducing effect on inflation. Additionally, digitalization, regulatory quality, and money supply positively affect financial inclusion, while the growth of money supply and deposit interest rates increase inflation. According to Granger causality analysis, there is a causality running from financial inclusion to the inflation rate. Accordingly, policymakers in upper-middle-income countries are advised to adopt balanced monetary policies and consider that increasing financial inclusion can help mitigate the adverse effects of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan Yıldırım & Tuba Özkan & Anıl Lögün & Mesut Doğan, 2025. "The Mutual Relationship between Financial Inclusion and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Upper-Middle-Income Countries," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 10(2), pages 619-635.
    • Handle: RePEc:ahs:journl:v:10:y:2025:i:2:p:619-635
    DOI: 10.30784/epfad.1642086
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/4619622
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.30784/epfad.1642086?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aaron Mehrotra & James Yetman, 2014. "Financial inclusion and optimal monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 476, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Kathleen Beegle & Rajeev Dehejia & Roberta Gatti, 2003. "Child Labor, Crop Shocks, and Credit Constraints," NBER Working Papers 10088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Leora Klapper, 2013. "Measuring Financial Inclusion: Explaining Variation in Use of Financial Services across and within Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 279-340.
    4. Miriam Bruhn & Inessa Love, 2014. "The Real Impact of Improved Access to Finance: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 1347-1376, June.
    5. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Leora Klapper, 2013. "Measuring Financial Inclusion: Explaining Variation in Use of Financial Services across and within Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 279-340.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ongo Nkoa, Bruno Emmanuel & Song, Jacques Simon, 2020. "Does institutional quality affect financial inclusion in Africa? A panel data analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    2. Grohmann, Antonia & Klühs, Theres & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2018. "Does financial literacy improve financial inclusion? Cross country evidence," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 111, pages 84-96.
    3. Singh, Nirvikar, 2018. "Financial Inclusion: Concepts, Issues and Policies for India," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt98p5m37s, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    4. Ndlovu, Godfrey & Toerien, Francois, 2020. "The distributional impact of access to finance on poverty: evidence from selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Yan, Yu & Qi, Shusen, 2021. "Childhood matters: Family education and financial inclusion," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Amit Pandey & Ravi Kiran & Rakesh Kumar Sharma, 2023. "Investigating the Determinants of Financial Inclusion in BRICS Economies: Panel Data Analysis Using Fixed-Effect and Cross-Section Random Effect," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-21, January.
    7. Thi Anh Nhu Nguyen & Thi Thuy Huong Luong, 2023. "The Determinants of Financial Inclusion in Vietnam: A Demand-Side Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, November.
    8. Damane, Moeti & Ho, Sin-Yu, 2024. "The impact of financial inclusion on financial stability: review of theories and international evidence," MPRA Paper 120369, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Marcelin, Isaac & Sun, Wei, 2025. "Financial inclusion, inequality, and retirement trends among older workers," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    10. Álvarez-Gamboa, Javier & Cabrera-Barona, Pablo & Jácome-Estrella, Hugo, 2023. "Territorial inequalities in financial inclusion: A comparative study between private banks and credit unions," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).
    11. Mohd Daud, Siti Nurazira & Ahmad, Abd Halim & Trinugroho, Irwan, 2024. "Financial inclusion, digital technology, and economic growth: Further evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    12. Francis Osei‐Tutu & Laurent Weill, 2021. "Sex, language and financial inclusion," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(3), pages 369-403, July.
    13. Taylor, Daniel & Osei-Tutu, Francis & Awuye, Isaac S., 2024. "The role of accounting standards in financial inclusion," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    14. Francis Osei‐Tutu & Laurent Weill, 2021. "Sex, language and financial inclusion," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(3), pages 369-403, July.
    15. Morgan, Peter J. & Long, Trinh Quang, 2020. "Financial literacy, financial inclusion, and savings behavior in Laos," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    16. Xue Wang, 2020. "Mobile Payment and Informal Business: Evidence from China's Household Panel Data," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(3), pages 90-115, May.
    17. Sanjukta Sarkar & Saritha Nair & M. Vishnu Vardhana Rao, 2023. "Exploring the Gender Dimension in Financial Inclusion in India: Insights from the Global Findex Database," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 8(2), pages 141-161, July.
    18. Ma, Yechi & Ding, Yibing & Bu, Ziwen & Li, Suyang, 2024. "Political freedom and financial inclusion: Unraveling social trust and political rent-seeking," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 46-65.
    19. Mohamed Samy ElDeeb & Yasser Tawfik Halim & Esmat Mostafa Kamel, 2021. "The pillars determining financial inclusion among SMEs in Egypt: service awareness, access and usage metrics and macroeconomic policies," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    20. Sulehri, Fiaz Ahmad & Ali, Amjad, 2024. "Financial Inclusion Dynamics: A Cross-Country Examination of Bank Concentration and Policy Strategies," MPRA Paper 121284, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ahs:journl:v:10:y:2025:i:2:p:619-635. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ersan Ersoy (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://epfjournal.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.