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Modeling Yield Risk Under Technological Change: Dynamic Yield Distributions and the U.S. Crop Insurance Program

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  • Zhu, Ying
  • Goodwin, Barry K.
  • Ghosh, Sujit K.

Abstract

The objective of this study is to evaluate the risk associated with major agricultural commodity yields in the United States. We are particularly concerned with the nonstationary nature of the yield distribution, which arises primarily as a result of technological progress and changing environmental conditions over time. In contrast to common two-stage methods, we propose an alternative parametric model that allows the moments of yield distributions to change with time. Several model selection techniques suggest the proposed time-varying model outperforms more conventional models in terms of in-sample goodness-of-fit, out-of-sample predictive power, and the prediction accuracy of insurance premium rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Ying & Goodwin, Barry K. & Ghosh, Sujit K., 2011. "Modeling Yield Risk Under Technological Change: Dynamic Yield Distributions and the U.S. Crop Insurance Program," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(1), April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:105549
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wyatt Thompson & Joe Dewbre & Patrick Westfhoff & Kateryna Schroeder & Simone Pieralli & Ignacio Perez Dominguez, 2017. "Introducing medium-and long-term productivity responses in Aglink-Cosimo," JRC Working Papers JRC105738, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    2. Shen, Zhiwei, 2016. "Adaptive local parametric estimation of crop yields: implication for crop insurance ratemaking," 156th Seminar, October 4, 2016, Wagenigen, The Netherlands 249984, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Agarwal, Sandip Kumar, 2017. "Subjective beliefs and decision making under uncertainty in the field," ISU General Staff Papers 201701010800006248, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Poudel, Mahadeb Prasad & Chen, Shwu-En & Ghimire, Raju, 2013. "Rice Yield Distribution and Risk Assessment in South Asian Countries: A Statistical Investigation," International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development (IJAMAD), Iranian Association of Agricultural Economics, vol. 3(1), March.

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