IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/jasfmr/190715.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Agricultural Land Values in the Midwest States1

Author

Listed:
  • Helmers, Glenn
  • Shaik, Saleem
  • Johnson, Bruce

Abstract

From a practical stand point, the precision and robustness of forecasting agricultural land values are evaluated in two out-of-sample time periods. Empirical application to five Midwestern states in the U.S. indicates the annually updated model performed well.

Suggested Citation

  • Helmers, Glenn & Shaik, Saleem & Johnson, Bruce, 2005. "Forecasting Agricultural Land Values in the Midwest States1," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2005, pages 1-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jasfmr:190715
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.190715
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/190715/files/232.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.190715?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard E. Just & John A. Miranowski, 1993. "Understanding Farmland Price Changes," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(1), pages 156-168.
    2. Sergio H. Lence, 2001. "Farmland Prices in the Presence of Transaction Costs: A Cautionary Note," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(4), pages 985-992.
    3. LeSage, James P. & Magura, Michael, 1991. "Using interindustry input-output relations as a Bayesian prior in employment forecasting models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 231-238, August.
    4. Christofides, Louis N., 1991. "In-sample and out-of-sample forecasts of wage adjustment in indexed and non-indexed labour contracts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 171-181, August.
    5. J. Stephen Clark & Murray Fulton & John T. Scott, 1993. "The Inconsistency of Land Values, Land Rents, and Capitalization Formulas," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(1), pages 147-155.
    6. Jean-Paul Chavas & Alban Thomas, 1999. "A Dynamic Analysis of Land Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(4), pages 772-784.
    7. Lesage, James P., 1989. "Incorporating regional wage relations in local forecasting models with a Bayesian prior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 37-47.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Painter, Marvin, 2008. "Is Canadian Farmland Overpriced?," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2008, pages 1-15.
    2. Styan, Jacob & Boerngen, Maria A. & Barrowclough, Michael J., 2021. "Factors Influencing Increased Usage of Cash Rent Leases in Illinois," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2021.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patrick de Fontnouvelle & Sergio H. Lence, 2002. "Transaction Costs and the Present Value “Puzzle” of Farmland Prices," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 549-565, January.
    2. Titus O. Awokuse & Joshua M. Duke, 2006. "The Causal Structure of Land Price Determinants," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 54(2), pages 227-245, June.
    3. Plogmann, Jana & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2022. "Farmland sales under returns and price uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    4. Onel, Gulcan, 2012. "The Use of Nonstationary Panel Time Series Data in the Analysis of Farmland Values," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124893, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Pavel Ciaian & d’Artis Kancs & Johan Swinnen, 2010. "EU Land Markets and the Common Agricultural Policy," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 53(3), pages 1-31.
    6. Xu, Jin & Leatham, David J., 2010. "Dynamic Analysis of Land Prices with Flexible Risk Aversion Coefficients," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61872, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Katchova, Ani L. & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Barry, Peter J., 2002. "The Effects Of Risk On Farmland Values And Returns," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19660, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. B. James Deaton & Chad Lawley, 2022. "A survey of literature examining farmland prices: A Canadian focus," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 70(2), pages 95-121, June.
    9. Gabriel Power & Calum Turvey, 2010. "US rural land value bubbles," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 649-656.
    10. Carlberg, Jared G., 2002. "Effects Of Ownership Restrictions On Farmland Values In Saskatchewan," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 1-10, August.
    11. Buchholz, Matthias & Danne, Michael & Musshoff, Oliver, 2022. "An experimental analysis of German farmers’ decisions to buy or rent farmland," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    12. Li, Xin, 2016. "The Farmland Valuation Revisited," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 4(2), pages 1-14, April.
    13. Callahan, Scott & Ifft, Jennifer & Michaud, Clayton P., 2022. "The impact of countercyclical farm programs on agricultural land values," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322579, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Dong, Xiao-Yuan, 1996. "Two-tier land tenure system and sustained economic growth in post-1978 rural China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 915-928, May.
    15. James P. LeSage & Zheng Pan, 1995. "Using Spatial Contiguity as Bayesian Prior Information in Regional Forecasting Models," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 18(1), pages 33-53, January.
    16. Ifft, Jennifer & Wu, Shang & Kuethe, Todd, 2014. "The Impact of Pasture Insurance on Farmland Values," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 390-405, December.
    17. Sanchirico, James & Newell, Richard & Papps, Kerry, 2005. "Asset Pricing in Created Markets for Fishing Quotas," RFF Working Paper Series dp-05-46, Resources for the Future.
    18. Saak, Alexander E. & Hennessy, David A., 2001. "Location, Land Quality, And Rental Volatility," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20747, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    20. Dowd, Michael R. & LeSage, James P., 1997. "Analysis of spatial contiguity influences on state price level formation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 245-253, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance; Land Economics/Use;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:jasfmr:190715. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asfmrea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.