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A Dynamic Analysis of Land Prices

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  • Jean-Paul Chavas
  • Alban Thomas

Abstract

A dynamic model of land prices is developed. It derives arbitrage asset prices under nonadditive dynamic preferences, risk aversion, and transaction costs. The model nests as special cases risk neutrality, time-additive preferences, the static capital asset pricing model (CAPM), as well as the dynamic consumption-based CAPM. The model is applied to the analysis of U.S. land prices for the period 1950–96. The econometric results provide evidence showing that U.S. land price patterns are inconsistent with risk neutrality or with the static CAPM model. No strong evidence was found against time-additive preferences. The econometric findings indicate that both risk aversion and transaction costs have significant effects on land prices. Copyright 1999, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Paul Chavas & Alban Thomas, 1999. "A Dynamic Analysis of Land Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(4), pages 772-784.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:81:y:1999:i:4:p:772-784
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1244323
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    Cited by:

    1. Heman D. Lohano & Robert P. King, 2009. "A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Analysis of Farmland Investment and Financial Management," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 57(4), pages 575-600, December.
    2. Titus O. Awokuse & Joshua M. Duke, 2006. "The Causal Structure of Land Price Determinants," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 54(2), pages 227-245, June.
    3. Xu, Jin & Leatham, David J., 2010. "Dynamic Analysis of Land Prices with Flexible Risk Aversion Coefficients," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61872, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Raboy David G. & Basher Syed Abul & Hossain Ishrat & Kaitibie Simeon, 2013. "More Efficient Production Subsidies for Emerging Agriculture in Arab Micro-States: A Conceptual Model," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 293-319, December.
    5. Pavel Ciaian & d’Artis Kancs & Johan Swinnen, 2010. "EU Land Markets and the Common Agricultural Policy," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 53(3), pages 1-31.
    6. Fabienne Femenia & Alexandre Gohin & Alain Carpentier, 2010. "The Decoupling of Farm Programs: Revisiting the Wealth Effect," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 836-848.
    7. Gardebroek, Cornelis & Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M., 2008. "Dynamic Microeconometric Approaches To Analysing Agricultural Policy," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6592, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Ifft, Jennifer & Wu, Shang & Kuethe, Todd, 2014. "The Impact of Pasture Insurance on Farmland Values," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 43(3), December.
    9. Ashok Mishra & Charles Moss & Kenneth Erickson, 2004. "Valuing farmland with multiple quasi-fixed inputs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(15), pages 1669-1675.
    10. Katchova, Ani L. & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Barry, Peter J., 2002. "The Effects Of Risk On Farmland Values And Returns," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19660, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Onel, Gulcan, 2009. "Modeling Nonlinearities in Farmland Values: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Error-Correction Model," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49445, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Brett Olsen & Jeffrey Stokes, 2015. "Is Farm Real Estate The Next Bubble?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 355-376, April.
    13. Penttinen, Markku & Latukka, Arto & Merilainen, Harri & Salminen, Olli, 12. "IAS Fair Value and Forest Evaluation on Farm Forestry," Scandinavian Forest Economics: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Scandinavian Society of Forest Economics, Scandinavian Society of Forest Economics, issue 40, May.
    14. Helmers, Glenn & Shaik, Saleem & Johnson, Bruce, 2005. "Forecasting Agricultural Land Values in the Midwest States1," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers.
    15. Pam Guiling & B. Wade Brorsen & Damona Doye, 2009. "Effect of Urban Proximity on Agricultural Land Values," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(2), pages 252-264.
    16. Ifft, Jennifer & Cooper, Joseph C. & Kuethe, Todd H., 2012. "The Impact of Risk and Farm Program Design on Cash Rents," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124334, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Onel, Gulcan, 2012. "The Use of Nonstationary Panel Time Series Data in the Analysis of Farmland Values," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124893, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Guiling, Pam & Brorsen, B. Wade & Doye, Damona G., 2007. "How Much Influence Does Recreation Have on Agricultural Land Values?," 2007 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2007, Mobile, Alabama 34947, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    19. Pierre Dupraz & Chalachew Temesgen Jemberie, 2012. "Farmland rental rate and marginal return to land: A french FADN perspective," Post-Print hal-01208927, HAL.
    20. Mishra, Ashok K. & Moss, Charles B. & Erickson, Kenneth W., 2004. "Effect Of Debt Solvency On Farmland Values: A Panel Cointegration Approach," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20261, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    21. Saak, Alexander E. & Hennessy, David A., 2001. "Location, Land Quality, And Rental Volatility," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20747, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    22. Guiling, Pamela & Doye, Damona & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2009. "Why Has the Price of Pasture Increased Relative to the Price of Cropland?," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers.
    23. repec:oup:revage:v:27:y:2005:i:4:p:526-541. is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Ifft, Jennifer & Nickerson, Cynthia J. & Kuethe, Todd H. & You, Chengxia, 2012. "Potential Farm-Level Effects of Eliminating Direct Payments," Economic Information Bulletin 139809, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

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