IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/ijarit/330284.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Crop production amid climate change and river water level fluctuation at northeastern region of Bangladesh: A time series analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Gazi Tamiz Uddin
  • Mahbuba Akther Mishu
  • Md Tuhinul Hasan
  • Debarshi Choudhury

Abstract

The overall goal of this study was to examine the effects of climate change on the yield of four distinct crops (Aus, Aman, Boro and Wheat) in Sylhet by using secondary climate data from 1970 to 2020. The study's other goal is to assess the impact of river water levels on crop productivity in Sylhet over time. Data on crop productivity, weather variability and river water levels were gathered from the various fields. Yield vs. climatic correlation was discovered in the study, and this correlation varied according to season. To estimate the impact of climate change on rice yield, a multiple regression model is used. Climate variables in the model were found to account for 11% of the overall variation in Aus rice yield. The relationship between relative humidity and maximum temperature is positive and statistically significant. Other variables had no effect on yield because they were not significant. Furthermore, Regression results indicated that climate variables account for 60.6 percent of the overall variation in Aman rice output. Relative humidity, on the other hand, can undermine the yield. Climate variables account for 53.5 percent of the overall variation in Boro rice output, according to the findings. As a result, an increase in rainfall may have a negative impact on Boro rice yield. Maximum and minimum temperatures might have a favorable impact on Boro rice yield. Increases in maximum temperature, on the other hand, can considerably boost Wheat yield while decreases in minimum temperature can diminish Wheat yield. On the other side, the results of the regression analysis suggest that river water level has a minor impact on Aus, Aman, and Boro yield. However, as the model demonstrates, the river water level can have an impact on wheat yield. The impact of temperature and rainfall on water level was also investigated in this study because the regression model failed to produce positive results. Surprisingly, the model performs well, despite the fact that maximum temperatures have a negative impact on water levels in the Aus and Aman seasons. This shows that if warmer temperatures aid raises Aus and Aman yields, then the water level cannot sabotage the yield rise. Rainfall has a favorable impact on the water levels in the Aus, Aman, and Boro seasons, but has a negative impact on the water levels in the Wheat season.

Suggested Citation

  • Gazi Tamiz Uddin & Mahbuba Akther Mishu & Md Tuhinul Hasan & Debarshi Choudhury, 2022. "Crop production amid climate change and river water level fluctuation at northeastern region of Bangladesh: A time series analysis," International Journal of Agricultural Research, Innovation and Technology (IJARIT), IJARIT Research Foundation, vol. 12(2), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ijarit:330284
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.330284
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/330284/files/4%29%20IJARIT%200394.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.330284?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dasgupta, Susmita & Huq, Mainul & Khan, Zahirul Huq & Ahmed, Manjur Murshed Zahid & Mukherjee, Nandan & Khan, Malik Fida & Pandey, Kiran, 2010. "Vulnerability of bangladesh to cyclones in a changing climate : potential damages and adaptation cost," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5280, The World Bank.
    2. Md. Ruhul Amin & Junbiao Zhang & Mingmei Yang, 2015. "Effects of Climate Change on the Yield and Cropping Area of Major Food Crops: A Case of Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, January.
    3. B. Dash & M. Rafiuddin & Fahima Khanam & M. Islam, 2012. "Characteristics of meteorological drought in Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1461-1474, November.
    4. World Bank, 2000. "Bangladesh : Climate Change and Sustainable Development," World Bank Publications - Reports 15706, The World Bank Group.
    5. Amarnath Tripathi, 2017. "Socioeconomic backwardness and vulnerability to climate change: evidence from Uttar Pradesh state in India," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(2), pages 328-350, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Md. Sazedur Rahman* & Md. Ashfikur Rahman, 2019. "Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Production in Bangladesh: A Review," Journal of Agriculture and Crops, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 5(1), pages 6-14, 01-2019.
    2. Mondol, Md Anarul Haque & Zhu, Xuan & Dunkerley, David & Henley, Benjamin J., 2021. "Observed meteorological drought trends in Bangladesh identified with the Effective Drought Index (EDI)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    3. Dasgupta, Susmita & Hossain, Md. Moqbul & Huq, Mainul & Wheeler, David, 2018. "Climate Change, Salinization and High-Yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 66-89, April.
    4. Devkota, Niranjan & Paija, Nirash, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Production: Evidence from Nepal," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 17(2), December.
    5. An T. N. Dang & Lalit Kumar & Michael Reid, 2020. "Modelling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Cultivation in Mekong Delta, Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-21, November.
    6. Kazi Iqbal & Paritosh K. Roy, 2015. "Climate Change, Agriculture And Migration: Evidence From Bangladesh," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-31.
    7. Md Abdullah Salman & Faisal Ahmed, 2020. "Climatology In Barishal, Bangladesh: A Historical Analysis Of Temperature, Rainfall, Wind Speed And Relative Humidity Data," Malaysian Journal of Geosciences (MJG), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 43-53, September.
    8. Shibly Shahrier & Koji Kotani, 2016. "Labor Donation Or Money Donation? Pro-Sociality On Prevention Of Natural Disasters In A Case Of Cyclone Aila, Bangladesh," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(01), pages 1-26, March.
    9. Choyon Saha, 2015. "Dynamics of disaster-induced risk in southwestern coastal Bangladesh: an analysis on tropical Cyclone Aila 2009," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 727-754, January.
    10. Dasgupta, Susmita & Hossain, Md. Moqbul & Huq, Mainul & Wheeler, David, 2014. "Climate change, groundwater salinization and road maintenance costs in coastal Bangladesh," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7147, The World Bank.
    11. Rubaiya Binte Mostafiz & Ryozo Noguchi & Tofael Ahamed, 2021. "Agricultural Land Suitability Assessment Using Satellite Remote Sensing-Derived Soil-Vegetation Indices," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-26, February.
    12. Fatih Tosunoglu & Ibrahim Can, 2016. "Application of copulas for regional bivariate frequency analysis of meteorological droughts in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1457-1477, July.
    13. Rawat, Nidhi & Babu, M S Umesh & Nautiyal, Sunil, 2016. "Climate change and sea level rise: A review of studies on low lying and Island countries," Working Papers 359, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore.
    14. Manoj Roy & Ferdous Jahan & David Hulme, 2012. "Community and institutional responses to the challenges facing poor urban people in Khulna, Bangladesh in an era of climate change," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 16312, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    15. Robert Stojanov & Ilan Kelman & AKM Ahsan Ullah & Barbora Duží & David Procházka & Klára Kavanová Blahůtová, 2016. "Local Expert Perceptions of Migration as a Climate Change Adaptation in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-15, November.
    16. Magda Tsaneva, 2020. "The Effect of Weather Variability on Child Marriage in Bangladesh," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(8), pages 1346-1359, November.
    17. Mallick, Bishawjit, 2023. "Environmental non-migration: Analysis of drivers, factors, and their significance," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    18. Chowdhury, Nasima Tanveer, 2010. "The relative efficiency of water use in Bangladesh agriculture," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 49(2), pages 1-18.
    19. Hossain, Mohammad Shakhawat & Arshad, Muhammad & Qian, Lu & Zhao, Minjuan & Mehmood, Yasir & Kächele, Harald, 2019. "Economic impact of climate change on crop farming in Bangladesh: An application of Ricardian method," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    20. Hasan, M. Mehedi & Alauddin, Mohammad & Rashid Sarker, Md. Abdur & Jakaria, Mohammad & Alamgir, Mahiuddin, 2019. "Climate sensitivity of wheat yield in Bangladesh: Implications for the United Nations sustainable development goals 2 and 6," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ijarit:330284. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ijarit.webs.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.