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Vulnerability of bangladesh to cyclones in a changing climate : potential damages and adaptation cost

Author

Listed:
  • Dasgupta, Susmita
  • Huq, Mainul
  • Khan, Zahirul Huq
  • Ahmed, Manjur Murshed Zahid
  • Mukherjee, Nandan
  • Khan, Malik Fida
  • Pandey, Kiran

Abstract

This paper integrates information on climate change, hydrodynamic models, and geographic overlays to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas in Bangladesh to larger storm surges and sea-level rise by 2050. The approach identifies polders (diked areas), coastal populations, settlements, infrastructure, and economic activity at risk of inundation, and estimates the cost of damage versus the cost of several adaptation measures. A 27-centimeter sea-level rise and 10 percent intensification of wind speed from global warming suggests the vulnerable zone increases in size by 69 percent given a +3-meter inundation depth and by 14 percent given a +1-meter inundation depth. At present, Bangladesh has 123 polders, an early warning and evacuation system, and more than 2,400 emergency shelters to protect coastal inhabitants from tidal waves and storm surges. However, in a changing climate, it is estimated that 59 of the 123 polders would be overtopped during storm surges and another 5,500 cyclone shelters (each with the capacity of 1,600 people) to safeguard the population would be needed. Investments including strengthening polders, foreshore afforestation, additional multi-purpose cyclone shelters, cyclone-resistant private housing, and further strengthening of the early warning and evacuation system would cost more than $2.4 billion with an annual recurrent cost of more than $50 million. However, a conservative damage estimate suggests that the incremental cost of adapting to these climate change related risks by 2050 is small compared with the potential damage inthe absence of adaptation measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Dasgupta, Susmita & Huq, Mainul & Khan, Zahirul Huq & Ahmed, Manjur Murshed Zahid & Mukherjee, Nandan & Khan, Malik Fida & Pandey, Kiran, 2010. "Vulnerability of bangladesh to cyclones in a changing climate : potential damages and adaptation cost," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5280, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5280
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shibly Shahrier & Koji Kotani, 2015. "Characterizing voluntary donations for natural disaster mitigation in a third world country: A case of Bangladesh," Working Papers SDES-2015-25, Kochi University of Technology, School of Economics and Management, revised Dec 2015.
    2. Barbier,Edward B., 2015. "Climate change impacts on rural poverty in low-elevation coastal zones," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7475, The World Bank.
    3. M. Rezaul Islam & Mehedi Hasan, 2016. "Climate-induced human displacement: a case study of Cyclone Aila in the south-west coastal region of Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1051-1071, March.
    4. Ratha, Dilip & Mohapatra, Sanket & Scheja, Elina, 2011. "Impact of migration on economic and social development : a review of evidence and emerging issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5558, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Climate Change Economics; Science of Climate Change; Hazard Risk Management; Global Environment Facility;

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