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Vulnerability of bangladesh to cyclones in a changing climate : potential damages and adaptation cost

Author

Listed:
  • Dasgupta, Susmita
  • Huq, Mainul
  • Khan, Zahirul Huq
  • Ahmed, Manjur Murshed Zahid
  • Mukherjee, Nandan
  • Khan, Malik Fida
  • Pandey, Kiran

Abstract

This paper integrates information on climate change, hydrodynamic models, and geographic overlays to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas in Bangladesh to larger storm surges and sea-level rise by 2050. The approach identifies polders (diked areas), coastal populations, settlements, infrastructure, and economic activity at risk of inundation, and estimates the cost of damage versus the cost of several adaptation measures. A 27-centimeter sea-level rise and 10 percent intensification of wind speed from global warming suggests the vulnerable zone increases in size by 69 percent given a +3-meter inundation depth and by 14 percent given a +1-meter inundation depth. At present, Bangladesh has 123 polders, an early warning and evacuation system, and more than 2,400 emergency shelters to protect coastal inhabitants from tidal waves and storm surges. However, in a changing climate, it is estimated that 59 of the 123 polders would be overtopped during storm surges and another 5,500 cyclone shelters (each with the capacity of 1,600 people) to safeguard the population would be needed. Investments including strengthening polders, foreshore afforestation, additional multi-purpose cyclone shelters, cyclone-resistant private housing, and further strengthening of the early warning and evacuation system would cost more than $2.4 billion with an annual recurrent cost of more than $50 million. However, a conservative damage estimate suggests that the incremental cost of adapting to these climate change related risks by 2050 is small compared with the potential damage inthe absence of adaptation measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Dasgupta, Susmita & Huq, Mainul & Khan, Zahirul Huq & Ahmed, Manjur Murshed Zahid & Mukherjee, Nandan & Khan, Malik Fida & Pandey, Kiran, 2010. "Vulnerability of bangladesh to cyclones in a changing climate : potential damages and adaptation cost," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5280, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5280
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    Cited by:

    1. Tanvir Pavel & Syed Hasan & Nafisa Halim & Pallab Mozumder, 2018. "Natural Hazards and Internal Migration: The Role of Transient versus Permanent Shocks," Working Papers 1806, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    2. M. Islam & Mehedi Hasan, 2016. "Climate-induced human displacement: a case study of Cyclone Aila in the south-west coastal region of Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1051-1071, March.
    3. Shibly Shahrier & Koji Kotani, 2016. "Labor Donation Or Money Donation? Pro-Sociality On Prevention Of Natural Disasters In A Case Of Cyclone Aila, Bangladesh," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(01), pages 1-26, March.
    4. Choyon Saha, 2015. "Dynamics of disaster-induced risk in southwestern coastal Bangladesh: an analysis on tropical Cyclone Aila 2009," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 727-754, January.
    5. Shibly Shahrier & Koji Kotani, 2019. "Natural disaster mitigation through voluntary donations in a developing country: the case of Bangladesh," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 21(1), pages 37-60, January.
    6. Alejandra Gijón Mancheño & Peter M. J. Herman & Sebastiaan N. Jonkman & Swarna Kazi & Ignacio Urrutia & Mathijs van Ledden, 2021. "Mapping Mangrove Opportunities with Open Access Data: A Case Study for Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-18, July.
    7. Manoj Roy & Ferdous Jahan & David Hulme, 2012. "Community and institutional responses to the challenges facing poor urban people in Khulna, Bangladesh in an era of climate change," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 16312, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    8. Robert Stojanov & Ilan Kelman & AKM Ahsan Ullah & Barbora Duží & David Procházka & Klára Kavanová Blahůtová, 2016. "Local Expert Perceptions of Migration as a Climate Change Adaptation in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-15, November.
    9. Md. Sazedur Rahman* & Md. Ashfikur Rahman, 2019. "Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Production in Bangladesh: A Review," Journal of Agriculture and Crops, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 5(1), pages 6-14, 01-2019.
    10. Mallick, Bishawjit, 2023. "Environmental non-migration: Analysis of drivers, factors, and their significance," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    11. Bishawjit Mallick & Khan Rahaman & Joachim Vogt, 2011. "Coastal livelihood and physical infrastructure in Bangladesh after cyclone Aila," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 16(6), pages 629-648, August.
    12. Sanchayan Nath & Frank van Laerhoven & Peter P. J. Driessen, 2019. "Have Bangladesh’s Polders Decreased Livelihood Vulnerability? A Comparative Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-20, December.
    13. Céline Guivarch & Nicolas Taconet, 2020. "Inégalités mondiales et changement climatique," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 35-70.
    14. M. Rezaul Islam & Mehedi Hasan, 2016. "Climate-induced human displacement: a case study of Cyclone Aila in the south-west coastal region of Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1051-1071, March.
    15. Ratha, Dilip & Mohapatra, Sanket & Scheja, Elina, 2011. "Impact of migration on economic and social development : a review of evidence and emerging issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5558, The World Bank.
    16. Asif Ishtiaque & Nurul Islam Nazem, 2017. "Household-level disaster-induced losses and rural–urban migration: Experience from world’s one of the most disaster-affected countries," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(1), pages 315-326, March.
    17. Dasgupta, Susmita & Kamal, Farhana Akhter & Khan, Zahirul Huque & Choudhury, Sharifuzzaman & Nishat, Ainun, 2014. "River salinity and climate change : evidence from coastal Bangladesh," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6817, The World Bank.
    18. Christophe Béné & Mahfuzul A. B. M. Haque, 2022. "Strengthening the Resilience of Vulnerable Communities: Results from a Quasi-experimental Impact Evaluation in Coastal Bangladesh," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(2), pages 843-868, April.
    19. Md Golam Azam & Md Mujibor Rahman, 2022. "Assessing spatial vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change and extremes: a geographic information system approach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(6), pages 1-35, August.
    20. Mohammad Chhiddikur Rahman & Md Shajedur Rahaman & Jatish C. Biswas & Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman & Mohammad Ariful Islam & Md Abdur Rouf Sarkar & Md Saiful Islam & Md Maniruzzaman, 2023. "Climate change and risk scenario in Bangladesh," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 381-404, June.
    21. Ahasan, Rakibul & Saimon, Sajadul Alam, 2016. "Developing a Web Based Decision Support System for Disaster Management on Aila Affected Area of Koyra Upazila," SocArXiv kdpg3, Center for Open Science.
    22. Md. Mashrur Rahman & Uttama Barua & Farzana Khatun & Ishrat Islam & Rezwana Rafiq, 2018. "Participatory Vulnerability Reduction (PVR): an urban community-based approach for earthquake management," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(3), pages 1479-1505, September.
    23. Barbier,Edward B., 2015. "Climate change impacts on rural poverty in low-elevation coastal zones," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7475, The World Bank.
    24. Gazi Tamiz Uddin & Mahbuba Akther Mishu & Md Tuhinul Hasan & Debarshi Choudhury, 2022. "Crop production amid climate change and river water level fluctuation at northeastern region of Bangladesh: A time series analysis," International Journal of Agricultural Research, Innovation and Technology (IJARIT), IJARIT Research Foundation, vol. 12(2), December.

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    Keywords

    Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Climate Change Economics; Science of Climate Change; Hazard Risk Management; Global Environment Facility;
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