IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/areint/305551.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis and forecasting of Ukrainian agrarian exports to the EU countries

Author

Listed:
  • Koliadenko, Svitlana
  • Andreichenko, Andrii
  • Galperina, Liubov
  • Minenko, Sofiia
  • Kovylina, Maria

Abstract

Purpose. The purpose of the paper is to study the state, perspective directions of Ukrainian exports of agricultural products and the introduction of effective forecasting using the method of mathematical modeling of a continuous system of aperiodic components. Methodology / approach. In the process of research, the fundamental provisions of modern economic science were used in relation to the groups of factors influencing the resulting indicators of export, foreign trade trends, methods of statistical analysis to assess the weight of factors influencing the resulting function, as well as modern mathematical methods for forecasting of agrarian exports were implemented. Results. The application of the developed mathematical model and the algorithm based on it, allowed to study the situation with the export of Ukrainian agricultural products to the EU, to identify trends specific to individual countries and the EU market as a whole, to assess the opportunities and prospects of niche markets, expansion nomenclature of export goods. Prognoses were given both on the export prospects of individual goods, product groups, and on the volume of deliveries to the EU. The use of factor analysis for forecasting of export deliveries allowed us to assess the impact of each of the factors and limit their amount. Originality / scientific novelty. For the first time, the method of mathematical modeling of a continuous system based on changes in its aperiodic components was used for efficient and relevant forecasting of agrarian export volumes. Even the stages of application of this method, in particular, the analysis and prognoses for individual items of the nomenclature of export goods, for individual countries – importers make it possible to represent the situation with agrarian exports more accurately and forecast future supplies. Practical value / importance. The proposed mathematical approach for market analysis and forecasting of markets can be used by both market regulators and producers and exporters of agricultural products. These polynomial equations for analysis and prognostication for individual product groups can be directly used in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Koliadenko, Svitlana & Andreichenko, Andrii & Galperina, Liubov & Minenko, Sofiia & Kovylina, Maria, 2020. "Analysis and forecasting of Ukrainian agrarian exports to the EU countries," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 6(3), September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:areint:305551
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.305551
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/305551/files/2_Koliadenko_article.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.305551?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karali, Berna & Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H., 2019. "The Changing Role of USDA Inventory Reports in Livestock Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(3), September.
    2. Oleg Bazaluk & Olha Yatsenko & Oleksandr Zakharchuk & Anna Ovcharenko & Olga Khrystenko & Vitalii Nitsenko, 2020. "Dynamic Development of the Global Organic Food Market and Opportunities for Ukraine," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Tebogo B. Seleka & Thula S. Dlamini, 2020. "Competitiveness of ACP Sugar Exporters in the Global Market," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 247-277, March.
    4. Olha Yatsenko & Vitalii Nitsenko & Abbas Mardani & Dalia Streimikiene & Tetiana Tananaiko, 2019. "Global Risks of Trade and Economic Cooperation of Ukraine With Countries of the Northern American Region," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 15(3), pages 217-225.
    5. Salvatore Di Falco & Angela Doku & Avichal Mahajan, 2020. "Peer effects and the choice of adaptation strategies," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(1), pages 17-30, January.
    6. Wigier, Marek (ed.) & Kowalski, Andrzej (ed.), 2017. "Strategies for the agri-food sector and rural areas – dilemmas of development," Multiannual Program Reports 302751, Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics - National Research Institute (IAFE-NRI).
    7. Roman Ostapenko & Yuliia Herasymenko & Vitalii Nitsenko & Svitlana Koliadenko & Tomas Balezentis & Dalia Streimikiene, 2020. "Analysis of Production and Sales of Organic Products in Ukrainian Agricultural Enterprises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-15, April.
    8. Lusk, Jayson L. & Thompson, Nathanael M. & Weimer, Shawna L., 2019. "The Cost and Market Impacts of Slow-Growth Broilers," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(3), September.
    9. Liu, Yong & Ker, Alan P., 2020. "Rating Crop Insurance Contracts with Nonparametric Bayesian Model Averaging," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 45(2), March.
    10. V. Heyets, 2016. "Ukraine's economy: key problems and prospects," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 1, pages 7-22.
    11. Xi He, 2020. "US agricultural exports and labor market adjustments," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(4), pages 609-621, July.
    12. Olha Kravchenko & Anatolii Kucher & Maria Hełdak & Lesia Kucher & Joanna Wysmułek, 2020. "Socio-Economic Transformations in Ukraine towards the Sustainable Development of Agriculture," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-16, July.
    13. Iryna Zamula & Maryna Tanasiieva & Vitalii Travin & Vitalii Nitsenko & Tomas Balezentis & Dalia Streimikiene, 2020. "Assessment of the Profitability of Environmental Activities in Forestry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-15, April.
    14. Juan He & Xiaoyong Zheng & Roderick Rejesus & Jose Yorobe, 2020. "Input use under cost‐of‐production crop insurance: Theory and evidence," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(3), pages 343-357, May.
    15. Werner, Samantha & Lemos, Scott R. & McLeod, Amanda & Halstead, John M. & Gabe, Todd & Huang, Ju-Chin & Liang, Chyi Lyi & Shi, Wei & Harris, Lily & McConnon, James, 2019. "Prospects for New England Agriculture: Farm to Fork," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 473-504, December.
    16. Richardson Kojo Edeme & Innocent A. Ifelunini & Nelson C. Nkalu, 2016. "A Comparative Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Exports on Economic Growth of ECOWAS Countries," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(5), pages 31-46.
    17. Serdar Ongan & Ismet Gocer, 2020. "The Causal Relationships between International Trade and International Tourism in NAFTA countries: Applications of Time and Frequency Domain Approaches," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 319-338, May.
    18. Ivan T. Kandilov, 2008. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Agricultural Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1028-1043.
    19. Fenghe, Zhang, 2020. "Analysis of the current situation of agricultural trade development between China and Ukraine," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 6(1), March.
    20. Dengjun Zhang, 2020. "The Impact of Exchange Rate on US Imports of Salmon: A Two-Stage Demand Model Approach," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 201-221, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zamula, Iryna & Prodanchuk, Mykhailo & Kovalchuk, Tatiana & Mуhalkiv, Alla & Simakov, Kostiantyn, 2020. "Engineering of business processes in accounting support of cash management," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 6(3), September.
    2. Olha Kravchenko & Anatolii Kucher & Maria Hełdak & Lesia Kucher & Joanna Wysmułek, 2020. "Socio-Economic Transformations in Ukraine towards the Sustainable Development of Agriculture," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-16, July.
    3. Furdychko, Orest & Drebot, Oksana & Palianychko, Nina & Dankevych, Stepan & Okabe, Yoshihiko, 2021. "Ecological and economic reporting as an indicator of the state of forestry land use," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 7(2), June.
    4. Anatolii Peshko, 2022. "The need for direct and indirect state regulation for the sustainable development of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine," RIVISTA DI STUDI SULLA SOSTENIBILITA', FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(2), pages 205-223.
    5. Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin & Olga Isengildina‐Massa, 2020. "Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 548-568, March.
    6. Steven Owino Adongo & Samuel Otieno John & Philip Zeph & Ruth Nehema Muyima, 2020. "Impact of Monetary Policy on the Performance of Agricultural Sector in Kenya," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 4(7), pages 562-568, July.
    7. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Impact of Vegetables Exports on Economic Growth in Tunisia," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 72-87, December.
    8. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Cao, Xiang & Karali, Berna & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael & Johansson, Robert C., 2021. "When does USDA information have the most impact on crop and livestock markets?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    9. Wesley, J.D. & Shen, Xuan & Li, Sheng & Wilson, Norbert L.W., 2012. "Agricultural Trade Bias in Exchange Rate Volatility Effect Estimation: An Application of Meta-Regression Analysis," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124870, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Duc Hong Vo & Anh The Vo & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2019. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Disaggregated Manufacturing Exports: Evidence from an Emerging Country," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, January.
    11. Dengjun Zhang, 2015. "The trade effect of price risk: a system-wide approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1149-1167, May.
    12. Skrynkovskyy, Ruslan & Pavlenchyk, Nataliia & Tsyuh, Svyatoslav & Zanevskyy, Ihor & Pavlenchyk, Anatoliі, 2022. "Economic-mathematical model of enterprise profit maximization in the system of sustainable development values," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 8(4), December.
    13. R. Ogunniyi, Olajumoke & Abiodun Okunlola, Funso & A. Alatise, Michael, 2021. "Intra-Africa Agricultural Trade And Hunger Reduction: Africa Economic Analysis," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 8(3), pages 36-52, June.
    14. Emediegwu, Lotanna E. & Wossink, Ada & Hall, Alastair, 2022. "The impacts of climate change on agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa: A spatial panel data approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    15. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "A Synthesis of the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade: A Meta-Regression Analysis," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 263-294, August.
    16. Phu Nguyen-Van & Anne Stenger & Tuyen Tiet, 2021. "Social incentive factors in interventions promoting sustainable behaviors: A meta-analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-27, December.
    17. Kim, Jiyeon & Yu, Jisang, 2023. "Assessing Differential Impacts of a Trade Agreement Using a Quantile Regression Approach," 2023: The Future of (Ag-) Trade and Trade Governance in Times of Economic Sanctions and Declining Multilateralism, December 10-12, Clearwater Beach, FL 339481, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    18. David Adeabah & Simplice Asongu, 2024. "Agricultural Export, Growth and the Poor in Africa: A Meta Analysis," Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, , vol. 36(2), pages 204-223, July.
    19. Mekbib Gebretsadik Haile & Geoff Pugh, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility discourage international trade? A meta-regression analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 321-350, April.
    20. Dmytro Liudvenko, 2020. "Information Needs of an Environmentally Conscious Society regarding the Functioning of Animal Husbandry Enterprises," Oblik i finansi, Institute of Accounting and Finance, issue 4, pages 22-29, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:areint:305551. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://are-journal.com/are .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.