IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/aergaa/26418.html

The Impact of the agricultural sector on cyclical unemployment and output in EU

Author

Listed:
  • Lawler, K.
  • Katsouli, E.
  • Pallis, D.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper was to estimate changes in cyclical unemployment and output in the EU using an Okun's law equation, extended with a new variable, namely, the share of the economically active labour force of the agricultural sector in the total economy. Treating both the NAIRU and the potential output growth rate as time dependent unobserved stochastic processes, a state-space maximum likelihood estimation method - using Kalman filter where the state variables were random walks - was followed in order to estimate the 15 equations. Overall, the estimated equations suggested that the extent and direction of changes of cyclical unemployment and cyclical output over the period 1961-1999 is mixed across the EU. The paper concludes that the introduction of the share of the agricultural labour force in the determination of cyclical unemployment and output is important and therefore the application of "common agricultural policies" across the 15 EU member states may be questionable because of the different expected effects of these policies on the various economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawler, K. & Katsouli, E. & Pallis, D., 2003. "The Impact of the agricultural sector on cyclical unemployment and output in EU," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 4(01), pages 1-12, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aergaa:26418
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.26418
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/26418/files/04010017.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.26418?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pete Richardson & Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & David Rae & David Turner, 2000. "The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 250, OECD Publishing.
    2. Mikael Apel & Per Jansson, 1999. "System estimates of potential output and the NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 373-388.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Murad A. BEIN & Serhan CIFTCIOGLU, 2017. "The relationship between the relative GDP share of agriculture and the unemployment rate in selected Central and Eastern European countries," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 63(7), pages 308-317.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
    3. Sven Schreiber, 2012. "Estimating the natural rate of unemployment in euro-area countries with co-integrated systems," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1315-1335, April.
    4. Fregert, Klas & Pehkonen, Jaakko, 2008. "Causes of structural unemployment in Finland and Sweden 1990-2004," Working Papers 2008:14, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    5. Cécile Denis & Daniel Grenouilleau & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Röger, 2006. "Calculating potential growth rates and output gaps - A revised production function approach," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 247, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    6. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 310-332.
    7. Cécile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Röger, 2002. "Production function approach to calculating potential growth and output gaps - estimates for the EU Member States and the US," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 176, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2020. "Potential Output in Theory and Practice: A Revision and Update of Okun's Original Method," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 247-266.
    9. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa: Eine Bestandsaufnahme," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 389, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    10. Antonella Palumbo, 2008. "I metodi di stima del PIL potenziale tra fondamenti di Teoria economica e Contenuto empirico," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0092, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    11. Schreiber, Sven & Wolters, Jurgen, 2007. "The long-run Phillips curve revisited: Is the NAIRU framework data-consistent?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 355-367, June.
    12. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Katos, A. & Pallis, D. & Katsouli, E., 2004. "System Estimates of Cyclical Unemployment and Cyclical Output in the 15 European Union Member-States, 1961-1999," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(4), pages 5-26.
    14. Vincenzo Cassino & Richard Thornton, 2002. "Do changes in structural factors explain movements in the equilibrium rate of unemployment?," Bank of England working papers 153, Bank of England.
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1904 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Francçois Lescaroux, 2011. "The Oil Price-Microeconomy Relationship is Alive and Well," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-48.
    17. Planas, Christophe & Roeger, Werner & Rossi, Alessandro, 2007. "How much has labour taxation contributed to European structural unemployment?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1359-1375, April.
    18. Tor Jacobson & Per Jansson & Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 487-520.
    19. Wolfgang Franz, 2005. "Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand Up?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 131-153, May.
    20. Emilie Jašová & Klára Čermáková & Božena Kadeřábková & Pavel Procházka, 2016. "Působení institucionálních faktorů na strukturální a cyklickou nezaměstnanost v zemích Visegrádské skupiny [Influence of Institutional Factors on Structural and Cyclical Unemployment in the Countri," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(1), pages 34-50.
    21. Gian Luigi Mazzi & Frédéric Reynès & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni, 2008. "Real Time Estimation of Potential Output and Output Gap for the Euro-Area : Comparing Production Function with Unobserved Components and SVAR Approaches," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-01027422, HAL.
    22. Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2003. "Time-Varying Nairu and Real Interest Rates in the Euro Area," Economics Working Papers 024, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aergaa:26418. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/etagrea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.