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Analysis of Economic Growth in Tourism Under the Impact of Terrorism and of the Waves of Refugees

Author

Listed:
  • Gina Ionela Butnaru

    (Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Ia?i, Romania)

  • Marilena Mironiuc

    (Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Ia?i, Romania)

  • Carmen Huian

    (Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Ia?i, Romania)

  • Alina Petronela Haller

    (Romanian Academy Branch of Iasi - ICES, Gh. Zane, Romania)

Abstract

Tourism is an extremely complex phenomenon marked by major factors like the terrorist attacks and the refugees’ invasion (the recent waves of migrants). This paper tests by empirical analyses if in the European Union countries, the gross domestic product in tourism reacts to the situations of crisis caused by the terrorist attacks and by the waves of refugees. The techniques used are s and ß convergence tests, combined with the deterministic sensitivity analysis. The sample consists of 26 European Union countries studied between 2000-2015 and 2000-2016, according to the available data. The results prove the prevalence of divergence, explicable by the existence of some countries, in the structure of the groups analysed, which have different contributions of gross domestic product in tourism to their overall economic growth. At the same time, a higher reaction of gross domestic product in tourism per capita is identified under the influence of the number of terrorism victims, compared to the incidence of the variation of the number of refugees. However, it cannot be stated that the two phenome n a lead to the general tendency of decrease of the gross domestic product in tourism per capita. On the contrary, there are occasional regressions of this indicator, which can be correlated only subsidiary with the crisis situations caused by terrorism and the waves of refugees.

Suggested Citation

  • Gina Ionela Butnaru & Marilena Mironiuc & Carmen Huian & Alina Petronela Haller, 2018. "Analysis of Economic Growth in Tourism Under the Impact of Terrorism and of the Waves of Refugees," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 20(S12), pages 885-885, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aes:amfeco:v:20:y:2018:i:s12:p:885
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bakens, J. & Nijkamp, P., 2011. "Lessons from migration impact analysis," Serie Research Memoranda 0022, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    2. Sara de la Rica & Albretch Glitz & Francesc Ortega, 2013. "Immigration in Europe: Trends, Policies and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2013-16, FEDEA.
    3. Delia Popescu, 2018. "Contemporary Approaches and Challenges of Tourism Sustainability," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 20(S12), pages 830-830, November.
    4. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    5. Nuno Carlos LEITÃO & Muhammad SHAHBAZ, 2012. "Migration and Tourism Demand," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(567)), pages 39-48, February.
    6. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-1085, December.
    7. Rafael Llorca-Vivero, 2008. "Terrorism And International Tourism: New Evidence," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 169-188.
    8. Helen Gazopoulou, 2011. "Assessing the impact of terrorism on travel activity in Greece," Working Papers 127, Bank of Greece.
    9. Gina Ionela Butnaru & Alina Petronela Haller, 2017. "Perspective of Sustainable Rural Tourism in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK): Comparative Study of β and σ Convergence in the Economic Development Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(4), pages 1-22, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gina Ionela Butnaru & Alina-Petronela Haller & Raluca Irina Clipa & Mirela Ștefănică & Mihaela Ifrim, 2020. "The Nexus Between Convergence of Conventional and Renewable Energy Consumption in the Present European Union States. Explorative Study on Parametric and Semi-Parametric Methods," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(20), pages 1-19, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    tourism; convergence; sensitivity analysis; terrorist attacks; refugees’ invasion;

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • Z32 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Tourism and Development

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