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Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Anil Kumar
  • Che-Yuan Liang

Abstract

We exploit the 1997 and 2003 constitutional amendments in Texas—allowing home equity loans and lines of credit for nonhousing purposes—as natural experiments to estimate the effect of easier credit access on the labor market. Using state-level as well as micro data, we find that easier access to housing credit led to a notably lower labor force participation rate between 1997 and 2007. Our findings are remarkably robust to improved synthetic control methods based on insights from machine learning. Our research shows that negative labor market effects of easier credit access are important for assessing its stimulative impact on overall growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Anil Kumar & Che-Yuan Liang, 2024. "Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 1-26, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:16:y:2024:i:3:p:1-26
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20200683
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus W. Deininger & Daniel Ayalew Ali, 2024. "Land Price Effects of Informality, Farm Size, and Land Reform : Evidence from More Than One Million Transactions in Ukraine," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11013, The World Bank.
    2. Muhammad Nawaz & Niraj P. Koirala & Hassan Butt, 2025. "Labor Supply as a Buffer: The Implication of Credit Constraints in the US," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-21, June.
    3. Kumar, Anil & Liang, Che-Yuan, 2019. "Credit constraints and GDP growth: Evidence from a natural experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 190-194.
    4. Gissur Ó Erlingsson & Jonas Klarin & Eva Maria Mörk, 2021. "Does Size Matter? Evidence from Municipality Break-Ups," CESifo Working Paper Series 9042, CESifo.
    5. Klaus W. Deininger & Thea Hilhorst & Zevenbergen,Jaap & Nkurunziza,Emmanuel, 2025. "Capitalizing on Digital Transformation to Enhance the Effectiveness of Property Institutions : Conceptual Background and Evidence from 85 Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11100, The World Bank.
    6. Costa Filho, João Ricardo, 2026. "From Code to Court: the Impact of Brazil’s Digital Bill of Rights on Tech Lawsuits," MPRA Paper 127781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Low, Hamish & Sánchez-Marcos, Virginia, 2024. "Labour supply and the cost of house price booms and busts," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Kabir Dasgupta & Brenden J. Mason, 2025. "The Effect of Liquidity Constraints on Labor Supply: Evidence from Interest Rate Ceilings," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-110, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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