IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v115y2025i9p3171-3213.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market-Wide Predictable Price Pressure

Author

Listed:
  • Samuel M. Hartzmark
  • David H. Solomon

Abstract

We demonstrate that predictable uninformed cash flows forecast aggregate market stock returns. Buying pressure from dividend payments (announced weeks prior) predicts higher value-weighted market returns, with returns for the top quintile of payment days four times higher than the lowest. This holds internationally and increases when reinvestment is high and market liquidity is low. We estimate a market-level price multiplier of 1.9. These results suggest price pressure is a widespread result of flows, not an anomaly.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel M. Hartzmark & David H. Solomon, 2025. "Market-Wide Predictable Price Pressure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(9), pages 3171-3213, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:115:y:2025:i:9:p:3171-3213
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20231725
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.20231725
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3886/E222561V1
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/materials/23797
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/materials/23798
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/aer.20231725?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J, 1970. "Marginal Stockholder Tax Rates and the Clientele Effect," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(1), pages 68-74, February.
    2. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Stock Market Returns and Consumption," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3175-3219, December.
    3. Malcolm Baker & Stefan Nagel & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "The Effect of Dividends on Consumption," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 231-292.
    4. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    5. David O. Lucca & Emanuel Moench, 2015. "The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 329-371, February.
    6. Hartzmark, Samuel M. & Solomon, David H., 2013. "The dividend month premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 640-660.
    7. Neuhierl, Andreas & Weber, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy communication, policy slope, and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 140-155.
    8. Savor, Pavel & Wilson, Mungo, 2013. "How Much Do Investors Care About Macroeconomic Risk? Evidence from Scheduled Economic Announcements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 343-375, April.
    9. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
    10. Samuel M. Hartzmark, 2015. "The Worst, the Best, Ignoring All the Rest: The Rank Effect and Trading Behavior," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(4), pages 1024-1059.
    11. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1775-1798 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Samuel M. Hartzmark & David H. Solomon, 2019. "The Dividend Disconnect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2153-2199, October.
    13. Samuel M. Hartzmark & Kelly Shue, 2018. "A Tough Act to Follow: Contrast Effects in Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 1567-1613, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samuel M. Hartzmark & David H. Solomon, 2019. "The Dividend Disconnect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2153-2199, October.
    2. Kent Daniel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Kairong Xiao, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Reaching for Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1145-1193, June.
    3. Bräuer, Konstantin & Hackethal, Andreas & Hanspal, Tobin, 2020. "Consuming dividends," SAFE Working Paper Series 280, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    4. Golubov, Andrey & Lasfer, Meziane & Vitkova, Valeriya, 2020. "Active catering to dividend clienteles: Evidence from takeovers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 815-836.
    5. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Stock Market Returns and Consumption," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3175-3219, December.
    6. Paudel, Shishir & Silveri, Sabatino (Dino) & Wu, Mark, 2022. "Investor sentiment and asset prices: Evidence from the ex-day," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Jiang, Hao & Sun, Zheng, 2020. "Reaching for dividends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 321-338.
    8. Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Monetary Momentum," CESifo Working Paper Series 6648, CESifo.
    9. Cheema, Arbab K. & Eshraghi, Arman & Wang, Qingwei, 2023. "Macroeconomic news and price synchronicity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 390-412.
    10. Hackethal, Andreas & Hanspal, Tobin & Hartzmark, Samuel M. & Bräuer, Konstantin, 2024. "Educating investors about dividends," SAFE Working Paper Series 420, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    11. Sun, Licheng & Najand, Mohammad & Shen, Jiancheng, 2016. "Stock return predictability and investor sentiment: A high-frequency perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 147-164.
    12. Liu, Hong & Tang, Xiaoxiao & Zhou, Guofu, 2022. "Recovering the FOMC risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 45-68.
    13. Bekjarovski, Filip, 2019. "Active investing," Other publications TiSEM 7636da9d-f63e-451a-ba78-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Nicolas Eugster & Romain Ducret & Dušan Isakov & Jean‐Philippe Weisskopf, 2022. "Chasing dividends during the COVID‐19 pandemic," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 335-345, June.
    15. Harris, Lawrence E. & Hartzmark, Samuel M. & Solomon, David H., 2015. "Juicing the dividend yield: Mutual funds and the demand for dividends," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 433-451.
    16. Li An & Huijun Wang & Jian Wang & Jianfeng Yu, 2020. "Lottery-Related Anomalies: The Role of Reference-Dependent Preferences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 473-501, January.
    17. Chen, Zhijuan & Lin, William T. & Ma, Changfeng & Tsai, Shih-Chuan, 2014. "Liquidity provisions by individual investor trading prior to dividend announcements: Evidence from Taiwan," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 358-374.
    18. Felix Kreidl, 2020. "Stock-Market Behavior on Ex-Dates: New Insights from German Stocks with Tax-Free Dividend," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-21, September.
    19. Hirshleifer, David & Sheng, Jinfei, 2022. "Macro news and micro news: Complements or substitutes?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 1006-1024.
    20. Sonya Zhu, 2023. "Volume dynamics around FOMC announcements," BIS Working Papers 1079, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:115:y:2025:i:9:p:3171-3213. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.