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Whatever It Takes? The Impact of Conditional Policy Promises

Author

Listed:
  • Valentin Haddad
  • Alan Moreira
  • Tyler Muir

Abstract

At the announcement of a new policy, agents form a view of state-contingent policy actions and impact. We develop a method to estimate this state-contingent perception and implement it for many asset-purchase interventions worldwide. Expectations of larger support in bad states—"policy puts"—explain a large fraction of the announcements' impact. For example, when the Fed introduced purchases of corporate bonds in March 2020, markets expected five times more price support had conditions worsened relative to the median scenario. Perceived promises of additional support in bad states alter asset prices, risk, and the response to future announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentin Haddad & Alan Moreira & Tyler Muir, 2025. "Whatever It Takes? The Impact of Conditional Policy Promises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(1), pages 295-329, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:115:y:2025:i:1:p:295-329
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20230486
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bo Becker & Efraim Benmelech, 2025. "The Resilience of the U.S. Corporate Bond Market during Financial Crises," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 21(4), pages 405-463, October.
    2. Acharya, Viral V. & Banerjee, Ryan & Crosignani, Matteo & Eisert, Tim & Spigt, Renée, 2025. "Exorbitant privilege? Quantitative easing and the bond market subsidy of prospective fallen angels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Boyarchenko, Nina & Kovner, Anna & Shachar, Or, 2022. "It’s what you say and what you buy: A holistic evaluation of the corporate credit facilities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 695-731.
    4. Asquith, Paul & Au, Andrea S. & Covert, Thomas & Pathak, Parag A., 2013. "The market for borrowing corporate bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 155-182.
    5. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
    6. Rohan Arora & Sermin Gungor & Joe Nesrallah & Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc & Jonathan Witmer, 2021. "The impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchase Program," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-23, Bank of Canada.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Aldridge, Patrick & Cimon, David & Vala, Rishi, 2025. "Central Bank Crisis Interventions: A Review of the Recent Literature on Potential Costs," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 7(4), pages 1-26, April.
    2. Xudong An & Saket Hegde & Harren Jan & Mete Kilic & Rodney Ramcharan, 2025. "The Fed Put and Bank Risk-Taking Evidence from the Loan Book," Working Papers 25-42, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    3. Vandeweyer, Quentin & Yang, Minghao & Yannelis, Constantine, 2026. "Discount factors and monetary policy: Evidence from dual-listed stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    4. Athanasios Geromichalos & Kuk Mo Jung & Ioannis Kospentaris & Changhyun Lee & Sukjoon Lee, 2025. "Central bank interventions and asset market liquidity," Working Papers 373, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    5. Stefania D'Amico & Max Gillet & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl & Tim Seida, 2024. "Open-Ended Treasury Purchases: From Market Functioning to Financial Easing," Working Paper Series WP 2024-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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