IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/acc/malfin/v32y2017i107p26-40.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regime Dynamics of International Precious Metal Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Ayben Koy

    (Istanbul Commerce University)

  • Güldenur Çetin

    (Istanbul Commerce University)

  • İhsan Ersan

    (Istanbul University)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze whether the precious metals have a nonlinear pattern by using multivariate markov switching vector autoregressive models (mms-var). The observation period is between 02 january 2002 and 28 march 2016 and includes daily closed prices of gold, silver, palladium and platinum. Research results have evidence that the international precious metal market have a structure with three regimes as depression, moderate growth and expansion.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayben Koy & Güldenur Çetin & İhsan Ersan, 2017. "Regime Dynamics of International Precious Metal Markets," Journal of Finance Letters (Maliye ve Finans Yazıları), Maliye ve Finans Yazıları Yayıncılık Ltd. Şti., vol. 32(107), pages 26-40, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:acc:malfin:v:32:y:2017:i:107:p:26-40
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.307172
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/295246
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.307172?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337, October.
    2. Philippe Charlot & Vêlayoudom Marimoutou, 2014. "On the relationship between the prices of oil and the precious metals: Revisiting with a multivariate regime-switching decision tree," Post-Print hal-01474252, HAL.
    3. Massimiliano Caporin & Angelo Ranaldo & Gabriel G. Velo, 2015. "Precious metals under the microscope: a high-frequency analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 743-759, May.
    4. Charlot, Philippe & Marimoutou, Vêlayoudom, 2014. "On the relationship between the prices of oil and the precious metals: Revisiting with a multivariate regime-switching decision tree," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 456-467.
    5. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Predicting Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W31, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Araújo Santos, Paulo & Al-Hassan, Abdullah, 2013. "Downside risk management and VaR-based optimal portfolios for precious metals, oil and stocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 318-334.
    7. Seuk Wai & Mohd Tahir Ismail & Siok Kun Sek, 2013. "A Study of Intercept Adjusted Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Model in Economic Time Series Data," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 5(8), pages 379-384.
    8. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2001. "Markov-Switching Procedures for Dating the Euro-Zone Business Cycle," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 339-351.
    9. Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Should investors include commodities in their portfolios after all? New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2606-2626, October.
    10. Ayben KOY & Güldenur ÇETÝN, 2016. "Metal Vadeli Ýþlem Piyasalarý ve Doðrusal Olmayan Dinamikleri," Isletme ve Iktisat Calismalari Dergisi, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 165-176.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vigne, Samuel A. & Lucey, Brian M. & O’Connor, Fergal A. & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2017. "The financial economics of white precious metals — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 292-308.
    2. Davide, Marinella & Vesco, Paola, 2016. "Alternative Approaches for Rating INDCs: a Comparative Analysis," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 232716, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    3. Bao, Dun, 2020. "Dynamics and correlation of platinum-group metals spot prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Pu, Yingjian & Yang, Baochen, 2022. "The commodity futures' historical basis in trading strategy and portfolio investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    5. Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Mensi, Walid & Maitra, Debasish & Al-Jarrah, Idries Mohammad Wanas, 2019. "Portfolio management and dependencies among precious metal markets: Evidence from a Copula quantile-on-quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Khaled Mokni, 2018. "Empirical Analysis Of The Relationship Between Oil And Precious Metals Markets," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(01), pages 1-20, March.
    7. Shelly Singhal & Pratap Chandra Biswal, 2021. "Dynamic Commodity Portfolio Management: A Regime-switching VAR Model," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 22(2), pages 532-549, April.
    8. Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri & Manera, Matteo & Nicolini, Marcella, 2016. "Understanding Dynamic Conditional Correlations between Commodities Futures Markets," ESP: Energy Scenarios and Policy 232223, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    9. Cagli, Efe Caglar & Taskin, Dilvin & Evrim Mandaci, Pınar, 2019. "The short- and long-run efficiency of energy, precious metals, and base metals markets: Evidence from the exponential smooth transition autoregressive models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Das, Debojyoti & Bhatia, Vaneet & Kumar, Surya Bhushan & Basu, Sankarshan, 2022. "Do precious metals hedge crude oil volatility jumps?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    11. Raza, Syed Ali & Masood, Amna & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Urom, Christian, 2023. "Forecasting the volatility of precious metals prices with global economic policy uncertainty in pre and during the COVID-19 period: Novel evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    12. Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri & Manera, Matteo, 2015. "The role of outliers and oil price shocks on volatility of metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 139-150.
    13. Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Zhenzhen, 2015. "Is gold different for risk-averse and risk-seeking investors? An empirical analysis of the Shanghai Gold Exchange," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 200-211.
    14. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Jammazi, Rania, 2019. "Spillovers from oil to precious metals: Quantile approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 508-521.
    15. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & José Álvarez-García & María de la Cruz del Río-Rama, 2024. "An EM/MCMC Markov-Switching GARCH Behavioral Algorithm for Random-Length Lumber Futures Trading," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-20, February.
    16. Štefan Lyócsa & Peter Molnár, 2016. "Volatility forecasting of strategically linked commodity ETFs: gold-silver," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1809-1822, December.
    17. Li, Wenlan & Cheng, Yuxiang & Fang, Qiang, 2020. "Forecast on silver futures linked with structural breaks and day-of-the-week effect," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    18. Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Premachandra, I.M., 2016. "Information spillover dynamics of the energy futures market sector: A novel common factor approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 277-294.
    19. Zhao, Jue & Hosseini, Shahab & Chen, Qinyang & Jahed Armaghani, Danial, 2023. "Super learner ensemble model: A novel approach for predicting monthly copper price in future," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    20. Wang, Yang & Cao, Xinbang & Sui, Xiuping & Zhao, Wenxi, 2019. "How do black swan events go global? -Evidence from US reserves effects on TOCOM gold futures prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Precious Metals Markets; Nonlinearity; Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:acc:malfin:v:32:y:2017:i:107:p:26-40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Süleyman Kale (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/mfy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.