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Expectations, Bond Yields, and Monetary Policy

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Carlo Altavilla & Raffaella Giacomini & Giuseppe Ragusa, 2017. "Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 1055-1068, September.
  2. Backus, David & Zin, Stanley E. & Chernov, Mikhail & Zviadadze, Irina, 2013. "Monetary policy risk: Rules vs. discretion," CEPR Discussion Papers 9611, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Badye Essid & Tolga Cenesizoglu, 2010. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Credit Spreads," 2010 Meeting Papers 1139, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wei, Min, 2012. "Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 239-254.
  5. Antonio Gargano & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2019. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(2), pages 508-540, February.
  6. Ehling, Paul & Gallmeyer, Michael & Heyerdahl-Larsen, Christian & Illeditsch, Philipp, 2018. "Disagreement about inflation and the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 459-484.
  7. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Julia Schaumburg & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2021. "Networking the Yield Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 21-4, Bank of Canada.
  8. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, September.
  9. Guimarães, Rodrigo, 2014. "Expectations, risk premia and information spanning in dynamic term structure model estimation," Bank of England working papers 489, Bank of England.
  10. Dick Dijk & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel Wel & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 693-712, August.
  11. Istrefi, Klodiana & Mouabbi, Sarah, 2018. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy: A cross-country analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 296-313.
  12. Dániel Horváth & Péter Kálmán & Zalán Kocsis & Imre Ligeti, 2014. "What factors influence the yield curve?," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 9(1), pages 28-39, March.
  13. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2023. "What does anticipated monetary policy do?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 123-139.
  14. Shang, Fei, 2022. "The effect of uncertainty on the sensitivity of the yield curve to monetary policy surprises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  15. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Luca Gambetti, 2018. "Noisy Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 18-23, Bank of Canada.
  16. Paul Söderlind, 2010. "Reaction of Swiss Term Premia to Monetary Policy Surprises," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 385-404, March.
  17. Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
  18. Francesco Campigli & Gabriele Tedeschi & Maria Cristina Recchioni, 2021. "The talkative variables of the hybrid Heston model: Yields’ maturity and economic (in)stability," Working Papers 2021/03, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  19. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco, 2011. "A New-Keynesian model of the yield curve with learning dynamics: A Bayesian evaluation," MPRA Paper 34461, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2011.
  20. Duan, Qihong & Wei, Ying & Chen, Zhiping, 2014. "Relationship between the benchmark interest rate and a macroeconomic indicator," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 220-226.
  21. Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.
  22. Han, Yang & Jiao, Anqi & Ma, Jun, 2021. "The predictive power of Nelson–Siegel factor loadings for the real economy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-127.
  23. Francisco Barillas & Kristoffer Nimark, 2012. "Speculation, risk premia and expectations in the yield curve," Economics Working Papers 1337, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2013.
  24. Saar, Dan & Yagil, Yossi, 2015. "Forecasting growth and stock performance using government and corporate yield curves: Evidence from the European and Asian markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 27-41.
  25. Andrea Ajello & Luca Benzoni & Olena Chyruk & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2020. "Core and ‘Crust’: Consumer Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates [Decomposing real and nominal yield curves]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(8), pages 3719-3765.
  26. Marco Giacoletti & Kristoffer T. Laursen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2021. "Learning From Disagreement in the U.S. Treasury Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 395-441, February.
  27. Andrea Carriero & Sarah Mouabbi & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2018. "UK term structure decompositions at the zero lower bound," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 643-661, August.
  28. Grishchenko, Olesya V. & Vanden, Joel M. & Zhang, Jianing, 2016. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-26.
  29. Gonzalo Cortazar & Cristobal Millard & Hector Ortega & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2019. "Commodity Price Forecasts, Futures Prices, and Pricing Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(9), pages 4141-4155, September.
  30. Kim, Don H. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2012. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 241-272, February.
  31. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
  32. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
  33. Francisco Barillas & Kristoffer Nimark, 2019. "Speculation and the Bond Market: An Empirical No-Arbitrage Framework," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(9), pages 4179-4203, September.
  34. Pooja Kapoor & Sujata Kar, 2023. "A review of inflation expectations and perceptions research in the past four decades: a bibliometric analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 279-302, May.
  35. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2011. "The information content of the embedded deflation pption in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  36. Andrea Berardi & Michael Markovich & Alberto Plazzi & Andrea Tamoni, 2021. "Mind the (Convergence) Gap: Bond Predictability Strikes Back!," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7888-7911, December.
  37. Leippold, Markus & Yang, Hanlin, 2019. "Particle filtering, learning, and smoothing for mixed-frequency state-space models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 25-41.
  38. Foroni, Claudia & Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2018. "Using low frequency information for predicting high frequency variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 774-787.
  39. Saar, Dan & Yagil, Yossi, 2015. "Forecasting sectorial profitability and credit spreads using bond yields," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 29-43.
  40. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  41. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Jing-zhi Huang, 2012. "Inflation risk premium: evidence from the TIPS market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  42. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Anh Le & Christian Lundblad, 2022. "Tractable Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8411-8429, November.
  43. Martin Schneider & Monika Piazzesi, 2008. "Bond Positions, Expectations, and the Yield Curve," 2008 Meeting Papers 268, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  44. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation and the Inflation Risk Premiums Using Nominal Yields," Staff Working Papers 12-37, Bank of Canada.
  45. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2015. "Risks in macroeconomic fundamentals and excess bond returns predictability," Working Paper Series 295, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  46. Andrea Carriero & Sarah Mouabbi & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2018. "UK term structure decompositions at the zero lower bound," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 643-661, August.
  47. Vijay A Murik, 2013. "Measuring monetary policy expectations," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(1), pages 49-65, April.
  48. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio, 2008. "Learning, Macroeconomic Dynamics and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 191-245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. Eriksen, Jonas N., 2017. "Expected Business Conditions and Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 1667-1703, August.
  50. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Stanley Zin, 2013. "Identifying Taylor Rules in Macro-finance Models," Working Papers 13-12, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  51. Marina Tiunova, 2019. "Commodity and Financial Cycles in Resource-based Economies," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(3), pages 38-70, September.
  52. Siamak Javadi & Ali Nejadmalayeri & Timothy L Krehbiel, 2018. "Do FOMC Actions Speak Loudly? Evidence from Corporate Bond Credit Spreads [Communication and monetary policy]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(5), pages 1877-1909.
  53. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2018. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails," Staff Working Papers 18-50, Bank of Canada.
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