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Identifying Taylor Rules in Macro-Finance Models

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  • David Backus
  • Mikhail Chernov
  • Stanley E. Zin

Abstract

Identification problems arise naturally in forward-looking models when agents observe more than economists. We illustrate the problem in several New Keynesian and macro-finance models in which the Taylor rule includes a shock unseen by economists. We show that identification of the rule's parameters requires restrictions on the form of the shock. A state-space treatment verifies that this works when we observe the state of the economy and when we infer it from observable macroeconomic variables or asset prices.

Suggested Citation

  • David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Identifying Taylor Rules in Macro-Finance Models," NBER Working Papers 19360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19360
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    Cited by:

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    3. Merim KASUMOVIĆ & Mirna MEŠIĆ, 2018. "Macroprudential stability indicators of financial systems: Analysis of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(614), S), pages 41-54, Spring.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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